316
FXUS65 KCYS 130453
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1050 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD, DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS ONGOING WITH GUSTS OF 60
TO 80 MPH, BUT LOCALIZED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENING. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
- BLOWING DUST FROM THIS WIND IS BEING SEEN ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES FROM THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND
EASTWARDS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT IS ONGOING FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES REMAIN POOR
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND JUST NORTH.
- VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 356 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL STRONGEST HEIGHTS AND WINDS
ENDED UP SHIFTING JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING, WHICH MANIFESTED IN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM ARLINGTON TO CHEYENNE. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT AND NOTEWORTHY GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH COUNTLESS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE, PARTICULARLY IN
CHEYENNE WHERE ACCOUNTS OF DAMAGED TREES, ROOFS, POWER LINES,
AND BLOWN OVER SEMIS HAVE BEEN NOTED. INDEED, THIS HAS BEEN A
HISTORIC WIND EVENT, AS THE CHEYENNE ASOS STATION RECORDED THE
STRONGEST WIND GUST IT HAS EVER SEEN AT 80 KNOTS OR 92 MPH.
WHILE WINDS ARE DECLINING, OVERALL GUSTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO
THE 60 TO 80 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS
STILL PEAKING IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH. BUT THIS ACTIVITY ISN'T JUST
LIMITED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AS HIGH WIND WARNINGS
REMAIN ONGOING THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS GOSHEN AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE ENTIRETY OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ON
THE NOTE OF THE PANHANDLE, A LARGE WILDFIRE STARTED NEAR ANGORA
AND IS RAPIDLY SPREADING EASTWARDS WITH THESE STRONG WINDS IN A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ALONGSIDE THE
PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHERN ZONES WILL REMAIN IN A RED FLAG
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE
POOR AND DAYTIME MINIMUM VALUES CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE LOW
20% TO TEEN RANGE. FINALLY, THE STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO PROMPTED
WIDESPREAD DUST TO KICK UP ACROSS THE REGION, AND HAVE BLANKETED
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES, ALONGSIDE
SOME EARLIER ISSUED DUST STORM WARNINGS FOR VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM LARAMIE INTO CHEYENNE.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHILE THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE ENDING TODAY, WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN MAJOR SYSTEMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS,
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP US IN ZONAL FLOW, WITH A 700MB JET FIRMLY OVER THE CWA
UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AND VERY FAVORABLE DOWNWARD OMEGA VALUES
MIXING THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THAT TIME. IN-HOUSE
GUIDANCE STAYS AT AROUND 60-100% PROBABILITY FOR HIGH WIND GUSTS
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN BEGINS TO WANE, FULLY
FALTERING BY SUNDAY AS A TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT COME
SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD INTRODUCE A STRONG BUT
BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE AS TEMPERATURES COOL SIGNIFICANTLY, AND
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20'S. THIS SYSTEM ALSO BRINGS A SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WHICH
WILL BRIDGE THE GAP BETWEEN THE SHORT INTO LONG TERM, AND WITH
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROPPING WITH THIS FRONT, PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT IT WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO
SNOW, WITH AROUND 1-3 INCHES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
POSSIBLE. BUT THIS WILL BE TOTAL SNOWFALL, AND WITH HOW WARM THE
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE, LESS THAN THIS IS EXPECTED TO
ACTUALLY ACCUMULATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE WIND MACHINE CAN'T
STOP AND WON'T STOP, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CRITICAL
ENVIRONMENT TO OUR AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. FOR SUNDAY, OUR AREA WILL BE
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH SHOULD BE ON A GENERAL
DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH
COLDER, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS THE
AREA. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAY BE DEALING WITH BLOWING SNOW AS THE WINDS
AND PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST. THOSE ALONG
AND WEST OF I-25 CAN EXPECT THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS RETURNING
MONDAY, MAINLY FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GET NUDGED OUT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WEST WINDS TO SPREAD EAST OF I-25 ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN TO VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS SURGING INTO THE 60S. PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY REACHING 80 TO 90% IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND
40 TO 60% FOR ADJACENT ZONES OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. NAEFS MEAN 700-MB
WINDS ARE BACK AROUND THE 90-TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. CURRENTLY
THIS LOOKS LIKE A MORE TYPICAL HIGH WIND EVENT THAN THE EXTREME
EVENT ONGOING THIS WEEK.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUING
TO DEAL WITH MARGINAL HIGH WIND EVENTS, AT LEAST FOR THE WIND PRONE
AREAS AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT ZONES. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
DROPPING HUMIDITY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, AN EXTREMELY STRONG RIDGE MORE REMINISCENT OF
MID-SUMMER WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL BE A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIDGE WITH 500-MB HEIGHTS FAR EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. ENSEMBLES ARE NEARLY
UNANIMOUS ON THIS POTENTIAL. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO DAILY RECORD HIGHS, OR OBLITERATING
DAILY RECORDS AND CHALLENGING MONTHLY RECORDS. IN FACT, THE CURRENT
NBM FORECAST HIGH FOR THURSDAY 3/19 IS 76F IN CHEYENNE, WHICH IS
WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF THE MONTHLY RECORD FOR MARCH. ECMWF EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX IS AROUND 0.8 TO 0.9 FOR 700-MB TEMPERATURE, WHILE
THE NAEFS MEAN EXCEEDS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM ON A DAY 7
FORECAST, SUGGESTING STRONG SUPPORT FOR A HIGHLY UNUSUAL WARM AIR
EVENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, BUT
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR ALL WESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: WESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE
VARIABLE WINDS AFTER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z FRIDAY ONCE THIS FRONT EJECTS EAST.
FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE, BUT
GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS A
CHANCE WINDS MAY DECOUPLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME...SO KEPT GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 55 KNOTS.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR KCYS, KRWL, AND KLAR THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS STAYING
BELOW 60 KNOTS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ417-418.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ106>108-115>119.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ430>433.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ101-
103>107-109-110-113-115>118.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ102-108-
119.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
019>021-054-055-095-096.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ434-435.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-
003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR 437.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...TJT
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