008
FXUS65 KCYS 140910
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
310 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 85 MPH ON SATURDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND A QUICK ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
- STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO SUNDAY, PRODUCING SUB-ZERO WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES.
- RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION BY
MID-WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
UPPER-LEVEL, LARGELY ZONAL FLOW TURNS MORE AMPLIFIED THIS AFTERNOON
AS A STRONG, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH, 700MB FLOW WILL REMAIN
QUITE ELEVATED AS THE 700MB SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA AND PROPAGATES EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED 700MB GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG,
WESTERLY 700MB JET ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE PEAKING AROUND 65 TO
70KTS BY MIDDAY. DOWNWARD OMEGA VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE MAXED OUT
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM 6AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 9PM THIS
EVENING, ENABLING STRONG, 700MB FLOW TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE TO 3
TO 4MB THIS AFTERNOON, FURTHER SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE. THESE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE, HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. DID END UP UPGRADING THE WESTERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE
PANHANDLE AND SET THE START TIME TO 12PM TODAY. AN INITIAL SURGE OF
STRONG WINDS LOOKS LIKE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING
TO 50-55KTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH AROUND 45KTS AT 800MB.
UNCERTAINTY IS A LITTLE HIGH WITH WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DOWNWARD
OMEGA VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE GFS AND RAP. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY STRUGGLED TO REACH THE SURFACE, BUT IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THEY DO REACH THE SURFACE AND MANY LOCATIONS START
GUSTING 60-65MPH. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO START THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE WESTERN ROW OF COUNTIES AT 12PM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
WINDS BECOMING EVEN MORE LIKELY AFTER ABOUT 6PM. WITH STRONG,
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ONCE MORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID-
50S TO LOW-70S AREA-WIDE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY,
DOWNSLOPING FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 13 TO 18 PERCENT
RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. WITH WINDS GUSTING 60 TO 70MPH,
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE WORST
OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ENDING AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION BEGINS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA STARTING AROUND 6PM THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. AT THIS
TIME, THE 700MB LOW WIL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH 700MB WINDS ACROSS THE CWA REMAINING QUITE ELEVATED IN
THE 60-70KT RANGE. PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN A ABOUT
3 TO 6 HOURS PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE CWA AS INCREASING
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT IN THE 97TH PERCENTILE PUSHES INTO
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA WILL
START IN THE NORTHERN ZONES BY 6PM THIS EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD
THROUGH 3AM. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY COLD 700MB
TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO PRECIPITATION LIKELY STARTING AS RAIN, BUT
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN, BUT LOCATIONS MAY SEE ANYWHERE
BETWEEN ABOUT 0.5 INCHES TO 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS COLD FRONT. THE
SNOWIES MAY SEE UPWARD OF 6 TO 9 INCHES, WHILE THE SIERRA WILL BE A
BIT BEHIND MAXING OUT AROUND 6 INCHES. AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SNOWY RANGE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH
NOON SUNDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -21 TO -19C RANGE ARE
EXPECTED BY 9AM SUNDAY MORNING, LEADING TO VERY COLD EARLY MORNING
LOWS AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN FACT,
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE 20 TO 40 DEGREES COLDER ON SUNDAY AS
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SNOW
LIKELY STILL FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT, SO WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVES SUNDAY MORNING.
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL AS 700MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE -18 TO -15C RANGE EAST OF I-25. WITH A LIGHT SNOWPACK
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, MONDAY MORNING LOWS
MAY TANK. CURRENT FORECAST MORNING LOWS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
BUT THESE MAY TREND DOWNWARDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LUCKILY,
WINDS WILL BE MUCH CALMER MONDAY MORNING, SO WIND CHILL VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW 0F.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES, PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WE WAVE GOOD-BYE TO OUR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST, DEALING
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 40S IN MOST SPOTS EXCEPT IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT NINE THOUSAND FEET REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSENT, EXCEPT
PERHAPS FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WHERE LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST FACING SLOPES.
WE SHIFT GEARS TO A PATTERN TYPICAL OF SUMMER WITH THE INTRODUCTION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE MAXED OUT PER THE NAEFS
MEAN TEMPERATURES CLIMATOLOGY. THIS SIGNAL IS THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
CLIMB BEGINNING TUESDAY REACHING LOW TO MID 70S WEST OF I-25 AND THE
NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE INTERIOR
REACH THE LOW 60S. WEDNESDAY SOME PLACES MAY REACH THE 80S,
PARTICULARLY IN RIVER VALLEYS OF EAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THIS TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER
70 AND LOWER 80 HIGH TEMPERATURES. WE UNFORTUNATELY WILL NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THIS RIDGE WILL SHUNT AWAY THE JET
STREAM TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, AND NO EMBEDDED WAVE PACKETS ARE
EVIDENT IN MODEL ENSEMBLES TO HELP SPUR LIFTING NEEDED FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL PERHAPS PAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ONE OF THE ONLY BENEFITS OF THIS RIDGING PATTERN ARE THE REDUCTION
OF STRONG WINDS. WINDS MAY STAY STRONG MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THANKS TO THE TIGHT 500 MB PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND GROWS, THESE GRADIENTS RELAX ALLOWING FOR WEAKER FLOW OUT
OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN OUR
WIND PRONE AREAS, BUT NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.
WORSENING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ALSO IN PLAY. WIDESPREAD
MINIMUM DAYTIME VALUES IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY AND IN THE TEENS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POOR NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES ARE LIKELY.
WHILE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG, WITH THE LACKLUSTER PRECIPITATION
RECENTLY, LOW RH VALUES, AND PREDICTED RECORD WARMTH MAY LEAD TO
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH OUR DRIED FUELS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
REGARDING THIS UPCOMING CONCERN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT KCDR FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUDS MAY TEMPORARILY INCREASE TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO IFR DUE TO A LOW CLOUD BANK
HANGING OUT NEAR THE TERMINAL AND OCCASIONALLY SLOSHING WEST TO
EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR
MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD, THEN CHANGES WILL BEGIN AS A FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY,
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS AS
IT DOES SO. SO, A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED FOR KCYS, KLAR, KRWL,
AND KCDR AT THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THEN TRANSITIONED
INTO A FM GROUP. WITH A A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS TONIGHT, LLWS MAY
PLAGUE KCYS, KLAR, KBFF, KSNY, AND KAIA THROUGH ABOUT 16Z, THEN
WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP WITH WESTERLY GUSTS 40 TO 60 KNOTS, ALL
BUT ENDING THE LLWS THREAT.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WYZ418.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ430>433.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ101-106-107-
116>118.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY
FOR WYZ102-108-119.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ103>105-
109-113.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ110-115.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WYZ114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR
WYZ114.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ435.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ002-003-021-055.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ436-437.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
NEZ019-020-054-095-096.
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...RV/AM
AVIATION...RZ
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