831
FXUS65 KCYS 151954
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
154 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO SUNDAY, PRODUCING SUB-ZERO WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES.
- VERY GUSTY WINDS RETURN EARLY IN THE WEEK, AS WELL AS
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- RECORD BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS IN NORTHERLY FLOW AS SEMI-ARCTIC AIR
FILTERS IN OVERHEAD. THIS AIRMASS WILL KEEP US COLD TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY SINGLE
DIGITS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS DAWES COUNTY FOR SOME POSSIBLE MORE SNOW TO ADD TO
THE GROUND. HOWEVER, THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE PRETTY LIGHT SO MAYBE A
TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION COULD HAPPEN.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVER SO SLOWLY CREEP ITS WAY EASTWARD
GRADUALLY WARMING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS IT PUSHES THE COLD AIR
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 40'S
BY THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE IS WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS TO
ENJOY THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. I ADDED LIGHT POPS (15-20%)TO THE
ENTIRE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS HAD SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTHERN REGION OF THE PANHANDLE WHEREAS THE OTHERS ONLY HAD
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN HALF. BY 6AM TUESDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE OFF TO THE EAST OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA. ALSO MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE JETSTREAM CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND
THE DAKOTAS. WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY OUR HEIGHT GRADIENT BECOMES COMPRESSED INTENSIFYING THE
700MB JET TO GENERALLY AROUND 55-60 KNOTS WITH THE GFS HAVING A
COUPLE BRIEF INSTANCES OF ACCELERATIONS GREATER THAN 60. THE CRAIG
TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT DIFFERENCE INCREASES FROM 50METERS TO
85METERS BY THE AFTERNOON INCREASING OUR CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
HIGH WINDS FOR TUESDAY. OUR IN-HOUSE HIGH WIND ALGORITHM PLACES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND PRONES HITTING HIGH WIND CRITERIA FROM 40
PERCENT TO 80/90 PERCENT BY NOON ON TUESDAY. AS THIS RIDGE SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THE JETSTREAM SHOULD BE SLOWLY
PUSHING NORTH AS WELL TAPERING OFF OUR WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ARLINGTON, BORDEAUX,
FOOTHILLS, AND THE SUMMIT AREAS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS
HIGH WINDS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BORDEAUX HITTING LATE AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
IS UNFAVORABLE FOR THAT GAP WIND AREA BUT WE ARE SUPPOSE TO SHIFT TO
THE WEST WHICH IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS AS THE JET
DESCENDS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH ARLINGTON HITTING AS WELL BECAUSE THE SUBSIDENT
FLOW DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL OMEGA FIELDS DON'T NECESSARILY DEPICT
THE STRONGEST DOWNWARD OMEGAS BUT ARLINGTON CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS
THAT STRETCH OF I-80 SEEMS TO HIT NO MATTER WHAT AS LONG AS THE JET
IS STRONG ABOVE. OUR IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS HIGH PROBS OVER
THE ARLINGTON AREA AND THE CRAIG TO CASPER HEIGHT GRADIENT STILL
SHOWS FAVORABLE VALUES SO INTO THE WATCH IT GOES!
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL BE FLAT OUT HOT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTROLS THE WESTERN US AND BRINGS RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES ALONGSIDE A DAILY CONCERN FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLES SHOW NEARLY IDENTICAL
FORECASTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ORIGINATING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND EXPANDING OVER THE ENTIRETY OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME SHIFTING EASTWARDS
AND PERHAPS FLATTENING OF THIS FEATURE BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
BUT THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP US UNDER WARM WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH DRY AIR OVERSPREADING AND KEEPING
NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE STANDARD DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL BRING TWO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE CWA - FIRSTLY,
RECORD SETTING WARMTH IS NEARLY CERTAIN WITH THIS PATTERN.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70'S TO MID 80'S ARE EXPECTED,
MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER. NORMAL
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 40'S TO UPPER 50'S,
SO THIS MEANS WE'LL BE AROUND 20-25+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SECONDLY, THE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALONGSIDE
LIMITED OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AND BREEZY DIURNAL WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A CRITICAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FIRE WEATHER, WITH
RED FLAG WARNINGS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN TO PERSIST AND
LIKELY BECOME EXASPERATED IN THE COMING WEEK AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES A FLEETING MEMORY, AND WINTER IS STUCK IN THE REAR-VIEW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND BLOWING SNOW, ALONGSIDE
THE CHANCE OF SOME NEW SNOWFALL. PRIMARY SITES AT RISK OF SEEING
NEW SNOW INCLUDE KCYS AND KCDR, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE ON THE
LOWER SIDE, BUT KEPT THE CHANCE IN TAFS. PRIMARILY EXPECTING
MVFR STATUS WITH MOST CLOUDS OR LOWERED VIS, BUT LOCALIZED
LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
RELAXING TONIGHT BUT PICKING BACK UP AGAIN TOMORROW FOR KLAR AND
KRWL WITH STRONG WESTERLY GUSTS AGAIN.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-
019>021-054-055-095-096.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG
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