286
FXUS65 KCYS 162325
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
525 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE USUAL WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AND THE LARAMIE VALLEY ARE ALSO IN A
HIGH WIND WARNING TUESDAY.
- DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND VERY STRONG WINDS.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
- RECORD BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
A BLUSTERY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING WIND
PRONES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE 250 MB JET OVERHEAD AND GOOD 850 AND
700 MB CAG TO CPR HEIGHT GRADIENTS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED AROUND ARLINGTON AND THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE. WIND GUSTS
OF 60 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED, SO BUMPED THE START TIMES UP
OF THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS IN THESE LOCATIONS. HIGH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS STEEPEN, CAUSING WINDS ALOFT
TO ALSO STRENGTHEN. 700 MB WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 50 TO 60 KTS WITH
GOOD SUBSIDENCE TO BRING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR BORDEAUX WILL START
LATER THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WESTERLY WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEHIND
IT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH PLAINS LOCATIONS COULD ALSO SEE SOME
FLAKES OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER NOT MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IS EXPECTED.
HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STEEP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY,
ALLOWING HIGH WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE SOME MIXING
CAN BE ACHIEVED, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE
STRONG WINDS TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY. AS A RESULT, ADDED THESE
ZONES TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHEYENNE AND
LARAMIE DO NOT DIRECTLY SEE THESE HIGH WINDS, HOWEVER, THERE IS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT BEAR CREEK NORTH OF CHEYENNE AND QUEALY
DOME/HERRICK LANE WEST OF LARAMIE WILL SEE 65 MPH WIND GUSTS.
DID ADD BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST AS WELL. GIVEN THE
DRYNESS AND DEGREE OF BLOWING DUST WE SAW WITH THE LAST MAJOR
WIND EVENT, CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY BLOWING DUST REDUCING
VISIBILITY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE WIND WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH THE AMPLE DOWNSLOPING,
BUT TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL BE WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, WITH
UPPER 50S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE WARM FRONT WITH USHER
IN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY EASE TUESDAY EVENING AS MSLP AND HEIGHT
GRADIENTS WEAKEN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH WINDS WILL BE DIEING DOWN OVER THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING BUT IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WINDY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KILLING OUR
HIGH WIND CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS IT REDIRECTS THE
JETSTREAM AND THE 700MB JET NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE IS PRETTY
STOUT AND WILL ADVECT WARM DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS ADVECTION OF DRY AIR WILL CAUSE OUR
DEWPOINTS TO DIVE INTO THE TEENS WHILE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 70'S AND 80'S. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RH VALUES TO
PLUMMET AS WELL SINCE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
DEPLETED. THE DRY ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS WILL
CRIPPLE THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AS FIRE WEATHER CONSUMES OUR REGION.
A MULTI-DAY FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO INCLUDE TOWNS IN THE CORRIDOR LIKE CHEYENNE,
CHUGWATER, AND WHEATLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED IN THE NEAR
FUTURE FOR A MULTI-DAY RED FLAG WARNING. THIS WEEKEND ANOTHER SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT, EACH GLOBAL MODEL HASN'T
COME TO AN AGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO FLATTEN OUR RIDGE OR IF THE RIDGE WILL BE IMMOVABLE AND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL JUST MOVE UP AND OTHER OUR RIDGE. IF THE
RIDGE FLATTENS THEN WE COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY REACH
THE GROUND BUT, IF IT DOESN'T MOVE THEN WE WILL REMAIN DRY AND ARID.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ROLLING THROUGH WITH CIGS 5K TO 10K FEET,
CIGS WILL SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT TUESDAY MORNING TO ABOVE 10K
FEET. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN IN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE LLWS
THAT BEGINS AROUND 04Z THIS EVENING AND TAPERS OFF BY 18Z
TUESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS RAMP UP WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45
KNOTS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ417>419-430>433.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ430-431.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY
FOR WYZ106.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ110-
116-117.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ115-118.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ434>437.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ437.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...RZ
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