773
FXUS65 KCYS 171755
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1155 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE USUAL WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY AND THE LARAMIE VALLEY ARE ALSO IN A
HIGH WIND WARNING TUESDAY.
- DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND VERY STRONG WINDS.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
- RECORD BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
TUESDAY WILL BE THE MOST "ACTIVE" DAY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AS WELL AS THE LARAMIE VALLEY
AND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA AND DRYING
CONDITIONS. NORTHWESTERLY 700MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH
HEIGHT GRADIENTS ELEVATED ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE DUE TO A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE
ELEVATED AS WELL, LEADING TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR VERY GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS IN THE 60S
AND 70S, HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR ARLINGTON AND ELK
MOUNTAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN 700MB FLOW STARTS TO SUBSIDE
AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. IN-HOUSE RANDOM FOREST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 80% PROBABILITY OF HIGH WINDS AT ARLINGTON, 65% AT
BORDEAUX, 75% NEAR THE I-80 SUMMIT, AND ABOUT 25% FOR CHEYENNE AND
LARAMIE. THEREFORE, THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
START THE STRONG WARMING TREND THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER-50S TO MID-70S AS 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 3 TO 5C RANGE. WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW, FIRE DANGER IS INCREASING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AND HAS
BEEN EXPANDED NORTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
MEANDERING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE APEX OF THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE OVER ARIZONA BY SATURDAY, LEADING TO A VERY WARM
WEEK IN STORE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN
HOISTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED AFTER
TUESDAY'S RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRES. OVERALL, EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S TO 80S THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGE. RECORD TEMPERATURES AND CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH WINDS WILL BE DIEING DOWN OVER THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING BUT IT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WINDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THIS RIDGE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KILLING OUR HIGH WIND CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS IT REDIRECTS THE JETSTREAM AND THE 700MB JET
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE IS PRETTY STOUT AND WILL ADVECT WARM
DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR WILL CAUSE OUR DEWPOINTS TO DIVE INTO THE TEENS
WHILE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70'S AND 80'S. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE RH VALUES TO PLUMMET AS WELL SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE DEPLETED. THE DRY ENVIRONMENT COUPLED
WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS WILL CRIPPLE THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AS FIRE
WEATHER CONSUMES OUR REGION. A MULTI-DAY FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR TO INCLUDE TOWNS IN
THE CORRIDOR LIKE CHEYENNE, CHUGWATER, AND WHEATLAND. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED IN THE NEAR FUTURE FOR A MULTI-DAY RED FLAG
WARNING. THIS WEEKEND ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST BUT, EACH GLOBAL MODEL HASN'T COME TO AN AGREEMENT AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FLATTEN OUR
RIDGE OR IF THE RIDGE WILL BE IMMOVABLE AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
JUST MOVE UP AND OTHER OUR RIDGE. IF THE RIDGE FLATTENS THEN WE
COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY REACH THE GROUND BUT, IF IT
DOESN'T MOVE THEN WE WILL REMAIN DRY AND ARID.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL TERMINALS TODAY PREVAILING OUT OF THE
WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO KCYS AND
KLAR WHERE DAYTIME WIND GUSTS MAY MAKE IT TO 50 KTS. SOME CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN WAVES
AROUND 10-15 THOUSAND FEET. OVERNIGHT WINDS DECREASE INTO THE
30 KT RANGE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING TERMINALS AND SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
WYZ417>419-430>433.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ430>433.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106-115-
118.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ110-116-
117.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
NEZ434>437.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ436-437.
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...MM/AM
AVIATION...WFOCYS
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