903
FXUS65 KCYS 172335
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
535 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE USUAL WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND VERY STRONG WINDS.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
- RECORD BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
ALL ZONES IN THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
VERIFIED, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MPH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS
EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WINDS TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE
ARLINGTON ZONE OVERNIGHT AS CAG TO CPR HEIGHT GRADIENTS REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE 50 METERS. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE SHOWS PROBABILITIES
ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR HIGH WINDS OCCURRING TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT DECIDED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ARLINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE A HOLD OF WESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID WARMING ACROSS THE CWA AS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND +6C DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PREDOMINATELY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S, WHICH WILL START TO COME
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WHICH WILL ADD TO THE WARMTH AS THE SUN ANGLE WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LATE SEPTEMBER. CANNOT FORGET THAT DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL
ALSO ADD TO THE WARMTH AS BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE COULD BRIEFLY SEE
HIGH WINDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT RAMP UP TO 50 KTS
WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AT THIS POINT AS THE WIND THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE DAY THURSDAY, RAISING
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO +8C,
PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE MAY EVEN TOUCH 70 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEARLY 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-
MARCH, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY BREAKING RECORD HIGHS. IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING THAT THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A LONG DURATION RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. NAEFS PERCENTILES FOR 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE AT CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM. REGIONAL
SOUNDING SITE CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES RECORDED MAXIMUM 500MB HEIGHTS
FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NEAR 5,800 METERS WITH ENSEMBLES PREDICTING
HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 5,820 METERS THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL THIS TO SAY
THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN, WITH VERY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED.
THIS RIDGE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING THE 700MB JET
NORTHWARD, WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE WINDS BY SUNDAY, THOUGH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY COULD STILL BE GUSTY. WARM AND DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS ARE THREATENING DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE INTERMOUNTAIN BASINS MAY REACH THE
70S, WHILE AREAS ON THE PLAINS ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE 80S, AND IN
SOME VALLEY SPOTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE COULD MAKE IT TO 90
SATURDAY.
THIS DRY AND WARM AIR WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS AND AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS
IMPRESSIVELY LOW DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 PERCENT.
THE POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL DRY OUT MOST FUELS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING THAT STARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM MDT
THIS SATURDAY FOR FORECAST ZONES NORTH AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY MAY MARK A DEPARTURE FROM THIS PATTERN IN
THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME COULD SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCATIONS ALONG I-25 AND WEST
MAY BECOME SATURATED ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO REACH THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S YET REMAIN ABOUT 5
DEGREES AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEYOND THIS BRIEF
DISTURBANCE, RIDGING PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO REBUILD AND
LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS MAY POSE A THREAT AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
25 TO 45 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TERMINALS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEBRASKA SITES WILL SEE
WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, TO GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND PICK RIGHT BACK UP AFTER 18Z TUESDAY WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
WYZ417>419-430>433.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ430>433.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106-115-
118.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
NEZ434>437.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ436-437.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RZ
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