182
FXUS65 KCYS 190619
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1219 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED.
- RECORD WARMTH WILL START AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MORE
LIKELY TO START ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COOLER, THOUGH STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS
WHERE SPORADIC GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE BEING OBSERVED. A HIGH WIND
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ARLINGTON AREA FOR OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS
WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE. WINDS WILL FINALLY EASE THIS EVENING AS 850
AND 700 MB HEIGHT GRADIENTS RELAX. DESPITE STRONG WINDS EASING,
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.
A STRONG BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS,
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM
AN ALREADY WARM +8C ON THURSDAY TO A ROASTY +12C ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS WARM ARE EXTREMELY RARE AND UNPRECEDENTED, PUTTING
THEM IN NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 30
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, IF NOT A FEW DEGREES MORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S, WITH 80
DEGREE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SET RECORD HIGHS BY FRIDAY,
WITH SOUTHEAST WYOMING CITIES EXPECTED TO SET RECORDS ON BOTH
DAYS. THE HEAT WAVE WILL PEAK ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
HITTING THE LOW 90S! ON SATURDAY, IT IS LIKELY THAT ALL CLIMATE
LOCATIONS WILL BREAK DAYTIME RECORD HIGHS, AS WELL AS MONTHLY
RECORD HIGHS! DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE, PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE. THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION AND DRY AIR UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CWA WILL BE WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE HEAT WAVE. RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING DUE TO THE EXTREME DRYNESS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL
FLATTEN THE POWERFUL RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING DOWN INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP 20 TO 30
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S HIGHS, SUNDAY'S FORECAST HIGH IS STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, EMPHASIZING THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS WEEK'S WARM AIR EVENT. ABOUT 50% OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK TO VALUES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SECOND ROUND OF WARMTH SHOULD
PEAK AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BEFORE ENSEMBLES DIVERGE WILDLY
BEYOND. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS
POTENTIALLY RETURNING AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PROBABILITIES ARE
NOT TOO HIGH RIGHT NOW, GENERALLY AROUND 40%, BUT WITH THE SECOND
PHASE OF THIS WARM SPELL LOOKING LIKE A LITTLE MORE ZONAL FLOW, WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WINDS ALOFT INCREASING AS IT GETS CLOSER.
NAEFS MEAN 700-MB WINDS INDEED APPROACH THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY THE
END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. RECORD HIGHS MAY ALSO CREEP BACK INTO THE
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS 700-MB TEMPERATURES PUSH BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND EVEN CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE USUAL PEAK-
MIXING TIMES FOR MOST TERMINALS (16Z TO 23Z)
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. INTERVALS OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH EAST
THIS MORNING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35
KNOTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS, AND 20 KNOTS FOR
WESTERN NEBRASKA.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ417>419-
430>433.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...TJT
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