073
FXUS65 KCYS 192119
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
319 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
- RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COOLER, THOUGH STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WHERE SPORADIC GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE BEING OBSERVED.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO BEING OBSERVED,
PARTICULARLY OUT WEST WHERE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE CAUSING VERY
DRY CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT OF THE DRYNESS AND WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING , DECIDED TO ADD THE REMAINING
FIRE WEATHER ZONES OUT WEST TO THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING.
GIVEN THE UNPRECEDENTED HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY,
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WHICH COULD LEAD TO
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FOR ANY FIRES THAT DO START.
THE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH A ROASTY +12C BY
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WARM ARE EXTREMELY RARE AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, UNPRECEDENTED, PUTTING THEM IN NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE THAN 30 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH A FEW NEBRASKA SITES REACHING HIGH TEMPERATURES
MORE THAN 40 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE! HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S AND 80S, WITH 80 DEGREES TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
SET RECORD HIGHS BY FRIDAY, WITH ALL LOCATIONS SETTING RECORDS ON
SATURDAY. THE HEAT WAVE WILL PEAK ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
HITTING THE LOW 90S! ON SATURDAY, IT IS LIKELY THAT ALL CLIMATE
LOCATIONS WILL BREAK DAYTIME RECORD HIGHS, AS WELL AS MONTHLY RECORD
HIGHS! DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE, PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE. THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION ANS DRY AIR UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CWA WILL BE WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH FOR THE DURATION OF THE HEAT WAVE. RED
FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE
EXTREME DRYNESS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL HELP TO FLATTEN
THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PASSAGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP 20 TO 30 DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES, YET STAYING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
UNFORTUNATELY NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM.
GEFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING ONLY ABOUT A 10-15% CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN A SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER I-25 AND POINTS EAST AND FLURRIES AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AFTER OUR FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SETTLE BACK IN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF WARMTH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR,
PEAKING WEDNESDAY. RECORDS AGAIN MAY BE BROKEN WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS REACHING 80F. TUESDAY, A 700MB SHORTWAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
THE AREA INCREASING STRONG WIND POTENTIALS. INTERNAL GUIDANCE
HAS ABOUT 50% PROBABILITIES OF HIGH WINDS. WE SHOULD NOT LET OUR
GUARD DOWN CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER WITH THESE CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY MAY PRESENT ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE RIDGING PATTERN WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NATURALLY
DIVERGING AT THIS RANGE, BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. BOTH NUMERICAL GEFS AND AI ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO HONE IN ON PRECIP.
CHANCES AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER GIVEN THE RECENT PATTERN AND
LIKELY LACK OF MOISTURE SOURCES IN GUIDANCE, THE ODDS ARE NOT
GREAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT KRWL, KLAR, AND KCYS WHERE GUSTS TO
30 TO 35 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 00Z
THIS EVENING. FOR WEST NEBRASKA TERMINALS WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 00Z WHEN
THEY FALL TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ417>423-425-
427>433.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...RV
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