664
FXUS65 KCYS 200831
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
231 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
- RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COOLER, THOUGH STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2026
ANOTHER PRETTY MILD NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE THE COOLEST, WITH 2:00
AM READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR ALLIANCE
AND CHADRON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY WARM FIRST DAY
OF SPRING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONG
595DM UPPER LEVEL HIGH DRIFTING A BIT FURTHER EAST TODAY WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 10C FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S (WEST OF I-25) TO MID 80S
(EAST). MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE DAILY RECORD HIGHS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
CONSISTENT AND SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINING NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AS PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN STATES.
STILL LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST (HOTTEST?) DAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH DRY/WARM DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. NAEFS CONTINUES TO
PLACE SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE ALL-TIME
HIGH AREA FOR 700MB AND 500MB TEMPERATURES AND GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT. ADJUST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS AND MODEL BIASES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGEST NOT ONLY ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH,
BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY ALSO TIE OR BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
ALL-TIME HIGHS FOR APRIL! CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS 93 FOR CHADRON
AND ALLIANCE, 92 FOR SIDNEY, 94 FOR SCOTTSBLUFF, AND 84 FOR
CHEYENNE. CAN'T REALLY CONSIDER RAWLINS AND LARAMIE ON THE
COOLER SIDE, WITH FORECAST HIGHS OF 77 AND 79 RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY INTERFERE WITH THESE TEMPERATURES,
BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF EARLIER IN THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
MINIMAL TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH PLEASANT WEATHER.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, ALL MODELS SHOW THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
LOWERING BETWEEN 0C-5C BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASED POP NORTH OF
I-80, BUT DIDN'T ADD ANY MENTION OF PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL HELP TO FLATTEN
THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PASSAGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP 20 TO 30 DEGREES
FROM SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES, YET STAYING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
UNFORTUNATELY NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM.
GEFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING ONLY ABOUT A 10-15% CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN A SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER I-25 AND POINTS EAST AND FLURRIES AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AFTER OUR FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SETTLE BACK IN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF WARMTH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR,
PEAKING WEDNESDAY. RECORDS AGAIN MAY BE BROKEN WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS REACHING 80F. TUESDAY, A 700MB SHORTWAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
THE AREA INCREASING STRONG WIND POTENTIALS. INTERNAL GUIDANCE
HAS ABOUT 50% PROBABILITIES OF HIGH WINDS. WE SHOULD NOT LET OUR
GUARD DOWN CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER WITH THESE CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY MAY PRESENT ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE RIDGING PATTERN WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NATURALLY
DIVERGING AT THIS RANGE, BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. BOTH NUMERICAL GEFS AND AI ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO HONE IN ON PRECIP.
CHANCES AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER GIVEN THE RECENT PATTERN AND
LIKELY LACK OF MOISTURE SOURCES IN GUIDANCE, THE ODDS ARE NOT
GREAT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL RETURN MID MORNING IN WYOMING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON IN NEBRASKA. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 35
KNOTS IN WYOMING AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET ONCE AGAIN, AND MAY BE BRIEFLY VARIABLE FRIDAY
EVENING.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ417>423-425-
427>433.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...MN
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