043
FXUS65 KCYS 031110
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
510 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER, WETTER WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- A GORGEOUS WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 50S AND 60S WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
- WARMER, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH FIRE
CONCERNS INCREASING SUNDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN CONCENTRATION FROM ABOUT SOUTHERN GOSHEN
COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SIOUX COUNTY. VERY LOW CLOUDS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA GIVEN THE MORE MOIST CONDITIONS. THE
COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED OUT OF THE AREA INTO EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS, BUT GUSTY WINDS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE. THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE EAST, WHILE
STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. IMPRESSIVE 500MB
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL HELP THE 500MB LOW PROPAGATE
NORTHEASTWARD FASTER THAN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHILE THE
IMPRESSIVE ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ON THE BACK END ACTS TO STRENGTHEN
THE RIDGE TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE 700MB LOW
ON THE OTHER HAND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LEADING TO INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND,
THEREFORE, INCREASING JET SPEEDS AT 700MB. THE 700MB JET LOOKS TO
STRENGTHEN TO 60+KTS BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE
DOWNWARD OMEGA VALUES PROGGED TO BE AT THEIR HIGHEST STRENGTH AROUND
THE SAME TIME. AS A RESULT, THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE 700MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO GO
THROUGH ANOTHER DEEPENING PHASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, LEADING TO A 50 TO 55KT JET DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WITH DOWNWARD OMEGA VALUES SUGGESTING DECENT DOWNWARD
MOTION, THERE IS INCREASING CONCERNS FOR THESE HIGHER WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. TO CAPTURE THIS THREAT, HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN LARAMIE COUNTY IN WYOMING, AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING, CAPTURING THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE ZONES, WHILE HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING, ESPECIALLY THE I-80 SUMMIT AND FOOTHILLS THAT
COULD GUST OVER 80MPH.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IN CONCERNED FOR TODAY, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING, WITH RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOWEST ALONG THE I-
80 CORRIDOR, DUE TO DRIER, WESTERLY WINDS SETTING UP THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE AND 700MB LOW. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA WILL BE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW,
FAVORING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN ABOUT 1 TO
3 INCHES, WITH PEAKS A RIDGE-LINES LIKELY SEEING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW, LEADING TO ONGOING MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES AND A CONTINUATION OF
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6 TO 10 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS LIKELY
SEEING UPWARDS OF 12 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DRIER, NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY, SIGNALING
THE END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTERLY ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. BROAD SUBSIDENCE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, LEADING TO
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND
INTO THE LOW-50S TO LOW-60S, AFTER A COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-30S TO MID-40S. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE, ALLOWING A GORGEOUS WEEKEND TO SET IN.
HOWEVER, WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS, FIRE CONCERNS WILL START
TO CREEP UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY CALM DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE 700MB LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE, SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY CALM THIS WEEKEND, FURTHER SUPPORTING A
GORGEOUS WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY AND GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
DAMPEN. TUESDAY THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE CONCERNS GIVEN OUR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, DRY FUELS, PROGGED WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH, AND MEAN RH
VALUES AROUND 20%, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WEDNESDAY THE
PATTERN WILL TURN MORE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES
EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA, DESPITE THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
FAVOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA, GIVEN
ENSEMBLE MEAN MUCAPE OF AROUND 50 J/KG. HOWEVER, QPF APPEARS TO BE
NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME AND WON'T PUT MUCH OF A DENT IN OUR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. AS ENSEMBLE MEAN SURFACE RH VALUES ARE AROUND 30% DURING
THIS PERIOD, ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FAR MORE WIND THAN
RAIN. THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED VIA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STOUT
INVERTED-V PROFILE SUGGESTING MORE OF A DRY MICROBURST THREAT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD, WITH HIGHS 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND MID TO UPPER 50S TO THE WEST. THIS IS THANKS TO 45-
50 KNOT ZONAL 700 MB FLOW, WHICH IS ALSO NOT EXACTLY FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, WE WILL BE SITUATED DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW, KEEPING
LOW (30% CHANCE OR SO) POPS IN THE FORECAST. AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH AS WELL AS IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO OUR SOUTH (I.E. A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE),
WHICH ARE BOTH FAVORABLE REGIONS FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT,
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD RELATIVE TO THE DAY PRIOR,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING. KAIA IS
EXPERIENCING LIGHT SNOW, REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 6SM THIS
MORNING WITH LOW CEILINGS. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING INTO THE FOR KCYS, KBFF, KSNY, AND
KAIA BEFORE LOWER CEILINGS RETURN WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE ONGOING ALL DAY WITH KCYS AND KSNY LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50KTS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WYZ119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ103-
110.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106-110-
118.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ112-
114.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ019>021-054-055.
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AM
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