283
FXUS65 KCYS 040022
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
622 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GORGEOUS WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 50S AND 60S WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
- WARMER, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH FIRE
CONCERNS INCREASING SUNDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW, LEADING
TO ONGOING MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES AND A CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION FOR THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A FEW INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS LIKELY
SEEING ANOTHER 4-6 INCHES OR SO. TONIGHT, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BE PUSHING FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SHOWERS FULLY
DISSIPATING AROUND 11PM. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO ADVECT IN
THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
SLOWLY WARM US BACK UP IN THE 50'S AND 60'S. THE SUBSIDENT FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS RATHER WEAK FOR OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING SLIGHTLY COMPRESSED
BETWEEN THE INCOMING RIDGE AND OUTGOING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALL
HEADLINES INCLUDING THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EXTENDED AND EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9PM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY AND GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
DAMPEN. TUESDAY THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE CONCERNS GIVEN OUR
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, DRY FUELS, PROGGED WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH,
AND MEAN RH VALUES AROUND 20%, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN WILL TURN MORE ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA,
DESPITE THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH
OVER MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA, GIVEN ENSEMBLE MEAN
MUCAPE OF AROUND 50 J/KG. HOWEVER, QPF APPEARS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE
AT THIS TIME AND WON'T PUT MUCH OF A DENT IN OUR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. AS ENSEMBLE MEAN SURFACE RH VALUES ARE AROUND 30%
DURING THIS PERIOD, ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FAR MORE
WIND THAN RAIN. THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED VIA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STOUT INVERTED-V PROFILE SUGGESTING MORE OF A DRY
MICROBURST THREAT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE
MILD, WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MID TO UPPER 50S TO THE
WEST. THIS IS THANKS TO 45- 50 KNOT ZONAL 700 MB FLOW, WHICH IS
ALSO NOT EXACTLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, WE WILL BE SITUATED DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW, KEEPING
LOW (30% CHANCE OR SO) POPS IN THE FORECAST. AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH AS WELL AS IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO OUR SOUTH (I.E. A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE),
WHICH ARE BOTH FAVORABLE REGIONS FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT,
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD RELATIVE TO THE DAY PRIOR,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFF AND ON AT THE KLAR
TERMINAL WITH SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 SM. THIS BAND IS
MOVING SOUTH INTO COLORADO CURRENTLY, HOWEVER LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF
MVFR, AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO IFR, TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SNOW
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AT KLAR AND KRWL. FURTHER EAST AT KCYS AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TERMINALS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. CEILINGS COULD
DROP TO BELOW 3000 FEET OCCASIONALLY, ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS
OF SNOW. A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO 4 SM POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. A RISE IN
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AND CLOUD COVER DIMINISH. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE MORNING
FOR THE WYOMING TERMINALS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEBRASKA TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WITH GUST REACHING
35.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116-117-
119.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ019>021-
054-055.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RV
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