532
FXUS65 KCYS 040552
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1145 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GORGEOUS WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE 50S AND 60S WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
- WARMER, DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH FIRE
CONCERNS INCREASING SUNDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW, LEADING
TO ONGOING MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES AND A CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION FOR THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND A FEW INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS LIKELY
SEEING ANOTHER 4-6 INCHES OR SO. TONIGHT, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BE PUSHING FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SHOWERS FULLY
DISSIPATING AROUND 11PM. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO ADVECT IN
THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
SLOWLY WARM US BACK UP IN THE 50'S AND 60'S. THE SUBSIDENT FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS RATHER WEAK FOR OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING SLIGHTLY COMPRESSED
BETWEEN THE INCOMING RIDGE AND OUTGOING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALL
HEADLINES INCLUDING THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EXTENDED AND EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9PM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY AND GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
DAMPEN. TUESDAY THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE CONCERNS GIVEN OUR
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, DRY FUELS, PROGGED WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH,
AND MEAN RH VALUES AROUND 20%, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN WILL TURN MORE ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA,
DESPITE THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH
OVER MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA, GIVEN ENSEMBLE MEAN
MUCAPE OF AROUND 50 J/KG. HOWEVER, QPF APPEARS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE
AT THIS TIME AND WON'T PUT MUCH OF A DENT IN OUR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. AS ENSEMBLE MEAN SURFACE RH VALUES ARE AROUND 30%
DURING THIS PERIOD, ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FAR MORE
WIND THAN RAIN. THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED VIA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STOUT INVERTED-V PROFILE SUGGESTING MORE OF A DRY
MICROBURST THREAT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE
MILD, WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MID TO UPPER 50S TO THE
WEST. THIS IS THANKS TO 45- 50 KNOT ZONAL 700 MB FLOW, WHICH IS
ALSO NOT EXACTLY FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GIVEN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, WE WILL BE SITUATED DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW, KEEPING
LOW (30% CHANCE OR SO) POPS IN THE FORECAST. AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH AS WELL AS IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO OUR SOUTH (I.E. A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE),
WHICH ARE BOTH FAVORABLE REGIONS FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT,
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD RELATIVE TO THE DAY PRIOR,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LOOK TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
STRONG STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ANY REMNANT MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, IF THEY
ALREADY HAVEN'T YET, FOR KRWL AND KLAR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO 00Z TO 03Z SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS. BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR EAST, GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 01Z SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS AND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS
FOR ALL WESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116-117-
119.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ019>021-
054-055.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...TJT
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