977
FXUS65 KCYS 072035
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
235 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING FIRE CONCERNS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN
WIND PRONE AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
- GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO SOUTHERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING, SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO
TORRINGTON LINE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS, THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS TRENDS SHOW DECREASING
HUMIDITIES AND INCREASING WINDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL SEND THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE, THOUGH WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND ONLY
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH DECENT LOW
LEVEL MIXING. 40 TO 50 KNOT 700 MB FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND
BASED ON THE LOCAL WIND MODEL AND 850 AND 700 MB CRAIG TO CASPER
HEIGHT DIFFERENCES, WE EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP NEAR ARLINGTON AND
ELK MOUNTAIN, THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE AT THIS
TIME AND SO WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT.
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH, WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE DEVELOPING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER, AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 1 CELSIUS YIELDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT IN THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARMING TREND BEGINS AS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 4 CELSIUS. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD NEAR PEAK HEATING AND A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SETS
UP OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, IT LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO
ALLIANCE LINE IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW AND MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AND THEN
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS WAVES OF ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE CULPRIT FOR THE PERSISTENT
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND REMAIN GENERALLY STATIONARY FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WITH LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BE THE
NORM ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
DRIEST DAY IN THE PERIOD AS THE MAIN REGION OF ENERGY AND LIFT
REMAINS FAIRLY WELL TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN LOW-END INSTABILITY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN WYOMING (AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE)
AND A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE RETURN IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF
NEBRASKA AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WITH INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW, SURFACE SOUTH TO
FLOW, AND AROUND 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE, A FEW
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WHILE GREATER MOISTURE RETURN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION, THIS OVERALL SETUP DOES
FAVOR A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF SOME OF
THE FIRST SMALL HAIL (LESS THAN 1/2 INCH) OF THE YEAR IN THE HIGH
PLAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS THE EXACT
DETAILS OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW BECOME QUITE
MUDDLED AND VARIED IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED TROUGHING IN THE WEST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, HOWEVER A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY BEHIND A
VORT MAX MAY HELP KEEP THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY THIS DAY. RENEWED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM THROUGH
THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ANY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS. WHILE
DROUGHT-BUSTING RAINS ARE NOT LIKELY, PRECIPITATION SHOULD RUN ABOVE-
AVERAGE IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO
PICK UP AT LEAST A HALF OF AN INCH OF LIQUID BY MID-NEXT-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 20Z
AND ENDING AROUND 04Z. THERE IS A SMALL CUMULUS SECTION
DEVELOPING OVER KLAR RIGHT NOW HOWEVER, LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS IT WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE VIRGA OCCUR. VCSH WAS
PUT IN FOR KLAR, KCYS, AND KBFF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VIRGA WITH
SOME POSSIBLE ERRATIC WINDS UNDERNEATH THE SHOWERS. BY 04Z THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE TAF AREA. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER HIGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TYPICALLY
10,000FT+ BUT NEAR KLAR THE CLOUDS MAY DROP TO AROUND 4,000FT.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ417-418-
432-433.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...MM
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