644
FXUS65 KCYS 262144
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
344 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MESSY PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, ALLOWING FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDER.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA MADRE
AND SNOWY RANGES FROM 6PM SATURDAY THROUGH 6AM MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE
LAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY, WITH
STRATIFORM SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON CERTAINLY
LIVES UP TO THE SAME PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, ALLOWING FOR
WARMING. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE EVEN
HAD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES! THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, MOVING INTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW STRATUS
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DUE TO MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, HENCE THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION SO FAR
TODAY. HOWEVER, HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT, SHOWING
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THESE EASTERN AREAS BY THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH, CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
STORMS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA, COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW AN INCH WITH MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO SEE A
DUSTING. THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL BE THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES ABOVE 8500 FEET.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. OVERALL, SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING WILL BE
FAIRLY BENIGN AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH DISRUPTIONS TO MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTES. A BREAK IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MID-DAY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS PARTIAL CLEARING WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
HEATING WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS, SPARKED BY ANOTHER INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE LOWER END SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY, BUT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES MORE MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE MODEST WITH SOME
MODELS SHOWING A FEW TENTHS OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING. BOTH SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LOOK RATHER MINOR. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE OVER 6
INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
TUESDAY EVENING, THE PARENT SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA. AS A RESULT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD AS WELL GIVING US A BRIEF BREAK
OVERNIGHT FROM ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESUME IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AS ITS PARENT SYSTEM IS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST AND THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOBES OF VORTICITY SLOWLY START
TO DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS LARGELY
DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FORMING A REX BLOCK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST PREVENTING ANY
NORTHWARD MIGRATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LASTING UNTIL
SATURDAY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW EVENTUALLY RE-JOINING
THE FLOW AND BEING ABSORBED BY THE LOW THAT IS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES. DURING THE DURATION OF THE REX BLOCK
THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SHOW THE STORM TRACK BEING TO FAR SOUTH TO
HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE MEMBERS THAT BRING THE SYSTEM A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH SO LOW POPS WERE KEPT AS THEY WERE BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINATELY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60'S AND 70'S
OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESTARTING THIS POSSIBLY WET BUT MUCH
NEEDED ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
A SERIES OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM COLORADO AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. KRWL AND KLAR HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING
TSRA AS THEY HAVE SOME CLEARING AND HIGHER BASED CLOUDS BETWEEN
3,000 AND 8,000FT WITH A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
DAY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD HELP RAISE THE CEILING INTO
POTENTIALLY MVFR RANGE BUT BY EARLY MORNING (12Z) THE PANHANDLE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SOCKED IN AGAIN AT AROUND 500FT OR LESS. THEN
WASH, RINSE, AND REPEAT FOR SHOWERS STARTING BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON MONDAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ112-114.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM
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