488
FXUS65 KCYS 011925
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
125 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, LEADING
TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY BENIGN AS RIDGING OVER THE
REGION HOLDS CONTROL OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEKEND, WITH SUNDAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY - EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MORNING LOWS STILL BE QUITE COOL THANKS
TO THE CLEAR SKIES, WITH MINIMUMS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING, SO DON'T START PLANTING QUITE YET! THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY
AS WELL, BUT LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE ISN'T
ENCOURAGING ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADING TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
WHILE WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN BREEZY AND SUPPORTIVE, RH VALUES ARE
MOSTLY IN THE 20'S TO UPPER TEENS, JUST OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL FOR
RED FLAG WARNINGS. AND ON SATURDAY, WHILE WE WILL BE THE DRIEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH RH VALUES INTO THE LOW TEENS AND NEAR
SINGLE DIGITS, GUIDANCE ISN'T SUPPORTING STRONGER WINDS WITH
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY, SUPPORTED
BY ENSEMBLES AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. IF A SHORTWAVE IS ABLE
TO TRACK JUST A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTWARD WE COULD SEE THOSE WINDS
INCREASE ENOUGH, SO IT'S STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
SUNDAY IS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN AS IT BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN A WEST COAST LOW AND
MULTIPLE STRONGER SHORTWAVES DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN AND SHOULD START TO STAVE OFF
STRONGER TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (ELEVATED ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER), THE MOST NOTABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BE ALOFT, PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND OUR
SPECIALTY - VIRGA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY MIRROR THOSE ON SATURDAY, WITH
ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES NEARBY, AND WITH
ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE, WE ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTH OF A DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE LINE. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
TUESDAY...MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY NEAR -6 CELSIUS,
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTH NORTHWEST, 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISE FROM 5580 METERS TO 5620 METERS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO BULGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO A MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED VARIETY EAST OF
A RAWLINS TO LUSK LINE.
THURSDAY...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS WILL HELP PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. WITH LIMITED
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE, LIMITED LIFTING MECHANISMS AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, DRIER CONDITIONS ON TAP. WILL SEE A DECENT WARMING TREND AS
700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 6 CELSIUS.
FRIDAY...THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BACKS TO WEST NORTHWEST AND THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DECREASES. 700
MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 9 CELSIUS WILL YIELD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS, SUSTAINED
AROUND 15 FROM THE NW. AN AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND 7.5 KFT THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS BECOME
VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CLEAR SKIES.
VERY LOW CHANCES OF RADIATION FOG TOMORROW MORNING GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES COMPARED TO THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE
VALLEY AREAS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RV
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