068
FXUS65 KCYS 142058
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
258 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONGSIDE COOLER CONDITIONS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- A POTENTIAL LATE SEASON SNOWFALL EVENT IS TAKING SHAPE TO
START THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAS LED TO
A RAPID DECLINE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA SHOWING SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A TROUGH
PASSING NORTH OF THE CWA HAS ALSO CREATED WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
BOTH SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
COMBINATION HAS CAUSED CRITICAL/INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR THE AREA.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR THE FIRE DANGER, AS WELL AS A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. LUCKILY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE LIGHTER
WINDS, OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE POOR
WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
UNFORTUNATELY, SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VIRTUALLY THE SAME AS THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THIS IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID-MAY. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST LEADING TO
YET ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS OF ABOUT 30 MPH. CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST AS DRY
WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD DAY OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. FIRE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN EASE OVERNIGHT,
BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES REMAIN ON THE POORER SIDE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN 8.6 TO 9.4 PROMOTING THE IDEA OF THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH GETS HERE WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAST THE WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A FLAT ZONAL FLOW.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CUTOFF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY DRY OUT AND PREVENTION ANY LIFTING OF SURFACE
MOISTURE. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ITS
WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SEND A FRONT THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOME LOBES OF VORTICITY LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT TO AIDE IN THE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO HELP PRODUCE SOME WEAK SHOWERS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME PERIOD. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY TILTED PUSHING SOME STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND VORTICITY LOBES TO GIVE US SOME POSSIBLY STRONG
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE
700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT GOES FROM A WARM 8 TO 10C AND DROPS DOWN
TO ABOUT -6/-5C GIVING US A DECENT CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000FT EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY THE SUMMER SUN IS
LIKELY TO KEEP ALL THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAIN
PEAKS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THIS TROUGH IS THE START OF AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WORK WEEK AS WE LOOK TO GET THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ALMOST EVERY OTHER DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION TO KEEP THE
TERMINALS DRY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AT LEAST DESPITE THE TROUGH
MOVING IN. WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO WESTERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AROUND 14Z
THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD RETURN.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ106-110-
116.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM
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