696
FXUS65 KCYS 120522
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1122 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.
- TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL COME THIS WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ESCALATE ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN THE PRIMARY STORY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, CONTINUING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE COOLER
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE DRY. IN ADDITION, STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHICH WILL PRESENT CONTAINMENT CHALLENGES
FOR ONGOING WILDFIRES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
GUSTY WINDS TODAY IS PULLING OFF TO THE EAST, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND SETS UP TO OUR EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, WE'LL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REVERSE,
SUPPORTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE
WINDS MAY BE STRONG AT TIMES IN THE TYPICAL ELEVATED AREAS OF THE
CHEYENNE AND PINE RIDGES. WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING
OF MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, PARTICULARLY OVER
NEBRASKA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING, CLEARING OUR EASTERN ZONES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS ONCE AGAIN FROM SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST TO WEST OR
NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON. FRIDAY'S WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
TODAY, WITH CONSISTENT GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH (LOCALIZED 45 MPH)
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK TO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
20S. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WIDESPREAD
SINGLE DIGIT RH IS EXPECTED, AND THIS COULD BE LOCALLY AS LOW AS 5%.
WE WILL GET A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
WEEKEND. FIRST, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THIS FEATURES WILL ENCROACH INTO OUR AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AND PUSH UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE THIS WILL COME WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY, WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER WIND SHIFT FRIDAY
EVENING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MOVING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WITH
THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD
THIS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOOK FOR A COOLER DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ANTICIPATED. THERE WILL BE A
SLIM CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS, BUT THE OUTLOOK FOR BENEFICIAL
MOISTURE IS NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME AS COVERAGE LOOKS
TO BE LIMITED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY CAN BE A LITTLE TRICKY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS THE
PARENT LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE US.
THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE VERY MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY
FORCING TO REALLY HELP US OVERCOME THE STABLE DRY AIR.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAIN SO LOW POP'S
(25% OR LOWER) GENERALLY OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF LARAMIE COUNTY THAT HAS 35% POPS OR LESS WHERE THE FORCING
SEEMED A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO DEVELOP
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT THOSE
CHANCES DETERIORATE BY THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL HAVE A RIDGE SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND START ADVECTING WARM DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. A
RELATIVELY CALM NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR ALL THE SITES WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP BETWEEN
15Z AND 18Z FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. BY 00Z
SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
ONCE AGAIN. KRWL WILL BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION, AS GUSTY WINDS WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ417-418-430>433.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...RZ
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