202
FXUS65 KCYS 131103
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
503 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY, WITH DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A WEAK, UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE ACROSS MONTANA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TODAY, BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
BEFORE BEING LARGELY ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. 700MB FLOW SUGGESTS THE 700MB FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SURFACE
FLOW ALSO SUGGESTING THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE, LEADING TO MEAGER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION (NORTHERN CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES), WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA IS ABLE TO WARM BACK INTO THE
60S AND 70S. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES, WITH
VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS EXPECTED NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STOUT SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING. REVERSE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40+MPH.
THE ARLINGTON WIND PRONE AREA MAY SEE ELEVATED WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER
50MPH POSSIBLE, DUE TO THE STOUT REVERSE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT HIGH WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THANKFULLY,
THE FRONT WILL IMPROVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO
AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH 20 TO 25 PERCENT POSSIBLE ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LESSER
TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR SITUATION TO MONDAY, WITH A WEAK,
UPPER-LEVEL LOW, BUT THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA, STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT. HOWEVER, STRONG
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL LEAD TO THE LOW BECOMING A STRONG, SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WITH A DECENT POSITIVE TILT. THIS ORIENTATION DOES NOT CHANGE
MUCH FOR THE REGION, BUT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY
BEFORE THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF THE THE EAST FAR ENOUGH THAT ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION ONCE MORE. A STOUT RIDGE SLOWLY DEVELOPS
OFF THE WEST COAST, RESULTING IN NORTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. A SECOND COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.
THIS FRONT WILL DROP 700MB TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SEEING 700MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE -1 TO 3C RANGE, WHILE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
REMAINS WARMER IN THE 4 TO 6C. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 60S TO LOW-70S EVERYWHERE. SUNDAY MORNING AFTER THE
SECONDARY FRONT, SURFACE FLOW TURNS EASTERLY AS THE FRONT GETS
HUNG UP ON THE ROCKIES AND BRINGS THE FRONT BACK WESTWARD. WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND DEW POINTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
DECREASING TEMPERATURES, FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES DURING
THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FOG SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, JUST IN TIME FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THIS LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT
WILL BE A FAIRLY LOCALIZED AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE
EVENING HOURS AS EASTERLY, UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MONDAY ONWARDS WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY STOUT, UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. DRY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL SKYROCKET INTO THE 12 TO 16C RANGE
BY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THIS RANGE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK THURSDAY. WITH
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND VERY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES, A HOT WEEK IS IN STORE FOR
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 80S TO 90S, WITH THE WARMEST DAY LOOKING TO BE
FRIDAY AT THIS TIME, WITH WEDNESDAY NOT TOO FAR BEHIND.
UNFORTUNATELY, VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING WELL INTO CRITICAL LEVELS EACH
DAY THIS WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.
WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DAILY, LEADING TO INCREASING FIRE
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RETURN FRIDAY
EVENING, BUT MOST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ACROSS KCYS, KLAR, KRWL, AND
KSNY, WHILE KBFF, KCDR, AND KAIA ARE SEEING SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE
OVER THE TERMINALS. LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO STICK AROUND FOR THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT AND/OR LIFTING. GUSTY
WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY TERMINALS SEEING NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30KTS. WINDS START TO
DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING, WITH LOWER CEILINGS MOVING BACK INTO
THE REGION AND MORE EASTERLY WINDS RETURNING.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM
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