815
FXUS65 KCYS 142325
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
525 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM NOON TO 9 PM ON MONDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, WITH DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- A HIGH WIND EVENT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE WIND PRONE REGIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE TO PERSIST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A COOL DAY IN THE WAKE UP YESTERDAY'S
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ONLY SITTING IN THE 50S AND
60S AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH WARMER AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. WHILE THE CLOUDS REMAIN, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES AS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY BE NEGLIGIBLE SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATER IN THE EVENING.
A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY. WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEST COAST,
SOME OF THAT CONTINENTAL TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL START TO SPILL OVER
INTO THE ROCKIES. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO AROUND
+10C, LEADING TO AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO DROP TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT, LEADING TO
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE CWA WILL SIT
AT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 250 MB JET DURING THE DAY MONDAY,
LEADING TO GUSTY CONDITIONS. THE WARMER, DRIER, AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN WYOMING. AS A RESULT, THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING
AS SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO ABOUT 15 PERCENT WITH
30 MPH WIND GUSTS. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
GOOD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
TUESDAY MORNING STARTS OFF IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY'S SHORTWAVE SHOULD
BE CLEARING OUT DURING THE AS SUBSIDENT AND PARTIAL DOWNSLOPING FLOW
START TO TAKE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE
CLEAR THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIN RH IS PROGGED IN THE TEENS WITH AN
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IN THE 30'S AND 40'S. A 700MB JET WILL START TO
RAMP UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 50 TO 60 KNOTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GETS PUSHED INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE CENTRAL CONUS
AREA. THIS TROUGH IS ATTACHED TO THE PARENT LOW SPINNING OVER THE
HUDSON BAY THAT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGH WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR NEAR THE ARLINGTON AREA WITH PEAK
WINDS BETWEEN 12-18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED BUT WE WILL WAIT UNTIL MONDAY TO DECIDE THE HEADLINE
DECISIONS AS HIGH WINDS ARE TYPICALLY UNCOMMON FOR US IN THE SUMMER,
BUT IT WILL DEFINITELY BE WINDY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PEELS OFF
TO THE EAST OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM NIOBRARA TO DAWES COUNTY IN
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LOOKS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE BORDERLINE HIGH
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON ON TOP OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS PUT OUT FROM 18Z TUESDAY TO 02Z
THURSDAY (WEDNESDAY EVENING) TO HIGHLIGHT THESE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY EVENING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE THE PARENT LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OUR NORTH. SOME MOISTURE MAY BE
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE CRITICAL TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS THAT EVENING. WHILE THE FRONT MAY NOT PRODUCE
ANY SHOWERS THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO POTENTIAL ALLOWING
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TO REACH 60 PERCENT AND ABOVE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. FRIDAY MAY HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS ANOTHER
SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT OUR REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO FAR THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT FINALLY
GETTING SOME RAIN BUT WE SHALL SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT RWL AND
POSSIBLY LAR), BUT THE DIRECTION MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 TO 30%) FOR A FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTION DUE TO LOW CIGS AT CYS AND SNY, BUT THIS WAS TOO LOW
TO ADD TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON
MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 35
KNOTS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ417-418-
432-433.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ417-418-430>433.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NEZ434>437.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MN
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