901
FXUS65 KCYS 160456
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1056 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FROM NOON TO 9 PM MONDAY.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25 FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE
REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 3 PM
WEDNESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM ASIDE FROM
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A PLEASANT BUT BREEZY DAY IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE AND
SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
OBSERVED GUSTS HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST HAS A ALLOWED A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
WILL PUSH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TO REBOUND A BIT. THEREFORE
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE WILL EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POP RIGHT BACK UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH A
LONG DURATION FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR THE AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 80S AND 90S. THESE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL HELP DRY
OUT THE SURFACE, LEADING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE CWA
SITS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 250 MB JET. AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS
OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DIVES A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE
IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING WIND PRONES STARTING TUESDAY
EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE UP TO 60 KTS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
MSLP GRADIENTS AND HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALSO SHOW A STRONG RESPONSE,
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS OCCURRING. IN-HOUSE
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS
IN THE WIND PRONES, SO UPGRADES TO THE HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE
LIKELY IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE. STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES,
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
WEDNESDAY...FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
700 MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AROUND 10C WILL YIELD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES, WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, THUS DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY...EVEN COOLER MORE AUTUMNAL LIKE TEMPERATURES OCCUR, WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 8C YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES. SCANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE, THUS NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BACKS FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST, WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH HELPING TO
BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
SATURDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT PASSES OVERHEAD NEAR PEAK HEATING, AND AN INFLUX OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS HELPS TO DEVELOP A
SCATTERED COVERAGE, 30 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 25. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO FORECAST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES.
SUNDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME HEAT RELIEF WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 7C
SUGGESTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONTINUED
ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF INTERSTATE
25.
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR SETUP COMPARED TO SATURDAY, WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON, SPAWNING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOCUSED
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE WYOMING-NEBRASKA STATE LINE.
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DUE TO EXPECTED
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SETTLING ON WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL INCREASE MID MORNING, AND
EXPECT THE DIRECTION TO BECOME MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LOOK FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN
NEBRASKA AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS IN WYOMING.
AFTER SUNSET, EXPECT WINDS IN NEBRASKA TO EASE AND BECOME
VARIABLE. GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS CONSISTENT IN WYOMING, BUT
STRONG WINDS MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE NIGHT THERE.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WYZ417-418-430>433.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR WYZ106.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR WYZ110.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MN
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