357
FXUS65 KCYS 161734
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1134 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25 FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH 10 PM WEDNESDAY.
- THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE REGIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
FROM 6 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 3 PM WEDNESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
- PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN SLOWLY MOVES
INLAND. WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE, BENIGN WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND FIRE DANGER.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID-80S TO MID-90S
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. WITH LARGE-SCAKE SUBSIDENCE AND VERY WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE FOR
ALL LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE/INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION TO THIS, A 700MB SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO 700MB
HEIGHT GRADIENTS INCREASING AND A STRENGTHENING 700MB JET. GFS OMEGA
FIELDS SUGGEST MODEST DOWNWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ALLOWING SOME OF THE 700MB WINDS TO MIX DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE
LEADING TO VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF THE
INCREASING WINDS, HOT TEMPERATURES, AND DRY CONDITIONS, THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
700MB HEIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS A SECOND, STRONGER 700MB TROUGH DIGS INTO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN CONUS BEFORE CLOSING OFF AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE UPPER-MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING HEIGHT
GRADIENTS, THE 700MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 55 TO 60KTS IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. GFS OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DOWNWARD MOTION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING HIGH WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL WIND PRONE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IN-HOUSE RANDOM
FOREST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND A 60% CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS AT
ARLINGTON AND ELK MOUNTAIN, THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT, AND THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS NEAR BUFORD, WITH AROUND A 40% CHANCE AT THE
BORDEAUX WIND PRONE LOCATION. DUE TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE, THE HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR THE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 3 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 65MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE OF THESE ZONES, LIKELY
GUSTING 40 TO 50MPH, ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE
700MB JET IS AT ITS STRONGEST.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF LATE IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE 700MB LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION AND LESSENS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. HOWEVER, THE 700MB LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS
FRONT WILL LARGELY END THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH COOLER, IN THE 70S EVERYWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT, LEADING TO IMPROVING HUMIDITY
VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY WILL STILL DROP TO THE 20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER, ESPECIALLY AS WINDS WEAKEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE REGION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MORE BENIGN WEATHER WITH INCREASING FIRE DANGER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS IT IMPACTS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT ON THE
PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE GFS IS JUST A TOUCH STRONGER ON THE TROUGH STRENGTH
AND MAYBE JUST A TOUCH SLOWER. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FUNNEL IN
BEHIND THIS TROUGH, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED. THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT
FROM THE CURRENT WEAK, AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS LIKELY AT
TERMINALS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TERMINALS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
EASE THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET, HOWEVER THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE BEFORE SURFACE WINDS DO. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ417-418-
430>433.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR WYZ106.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR WYZ110.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...SF
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