410
FXUS65 KCYS 172057
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
257 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS GENERALLY TOO WEAK FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONCERNS.
- A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
AND ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES COMBINE WITH
ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING A DECREASE IN AREAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHILE A FINAL CRITICAL DAY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
ONGOING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, OVERALL THE WEATHER IS
WINDING DOWN ON THIS FAIR JUNE DAY AS WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
RELAX WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD TO SLIGHTLY WARM. ONCE RED
FLAG WARNINGS ARE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING,
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BECOME NIL THANKS TO WEAK RIDGING
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN US. FOR TEMPERATURES, SINCE
THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO OVERSPREAD ALONGSIDE THE COLD
FRONT WE JUST HAD PUSH THROUGH, OVERALL HIGHS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80'S FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. FOR WINDS, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD PROMOTE LIGHTER WINDS OVERALL,
WITH SOME PERIODS OF BREEZINESS IN OUR CWA THAT ISN'T UNUSUAL
FOR OUR AREA. THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARDS AND WE START TO SEE THE REGION BEGIN
BECOMING UNSTABLE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, A
PRECURSOR TO STRONGER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY, BUT THE OVERALL REAL
CONCERNS BEGIN CROPPING UP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
SATURDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT PASSES OVERHEAD NEAR PEAK HEATING, AND AN INFLUX OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS HELPS TO DEVELOP A
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE, 40 TO 70 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST NUMEROUS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO FORECAST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES.
SUNDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME HEAT RELIEF WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 7C
SUGGESTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONTINUED
ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF INTERSTATE
25.
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR SETUP COMPARED TO SATURDAY, WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON, SPAWNING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOCUSED
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE WYOMING-NEBRASKA STATE LINE.
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DUE TO EXPECTED
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES. UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL AID LIFT.
TUESDAY...DRIER AIR INFILTRATES OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY EAST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 11C.
WEDNESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD INDUCING WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST OF I-25, WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AIDING IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-25.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. A COLD FRONT PASSES BY THE
TERMINALS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
WYOMING TAFS...WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE, HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. SUFFICIENT GRADIENTS
SUGGEST WIND GUSTS TO 23 TO 38 KNOTS UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING,
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AFTERWARD, THEN GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS AT
RAWLINS AND LARAMIE AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.
NEBRASKA TAFS...LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR 11000 FEET AT CHADRON UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 38 KNOTS UNTIL 02Z TO 03Z.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ417-418-
430>433.NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
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