680
FXUS65 KCYS 180802
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
202 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS GENERALLY TOO WEAK FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONCERNS.
- A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND
AND ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES COMBINE WITH
ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- DRIER AIR WILL MAKE A RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, PRODUCING A DECREASE IN
AREAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN NICELY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL GIVE US A NICE REPRIEVE FROM HIGH WINDS AND ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THAT HAVE BEEN PLAGUING MOST OF THE CWA OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PATTERN WON'T GIVE US MUCH IN THE WAY OF A HIGH
WIND THREAT WITH LIGHTER WINDS TAKING OVER. HOWEVER, WE CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW PERIODS OF BREEZINESS, ESPECIALLY IN OUR WIND PRONES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WHAT WILL THE TEMPERATURES BE DOING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS? WELL, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING DRASTIC,
NO HUGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS, AS 700MB TEMPS EACH DAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 6C TO 12C RANGE, WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WHILE LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AT NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, MOST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BENIGN. NOW,
LETS TAKE A LOOK AT THE VERY LATTER PART OF THE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK RIDGING WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO BECOME
UNSTABLE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING AS WELL, MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SO, OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS MAY MOVE
INTO THIS PORTION OF THE CWA. ALL THIS WILL BE THE PRECURSOR OF WHAT
MAY FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY, STAY TUNED...
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
SATURDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT PASSES OVERHEAD NEAR PEAK HEATING, AND AN INFLUX OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS HELPS TO DEVELOP A
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE, 40 TO 70 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST NUMEROUS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 25. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO FORECAST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES.
SUNDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME HEAT RELIEF WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 7C
SUGGESTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONTINUED
ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF INTERSTATE
25.
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE A SIMILAR SETUP COMPARED TO SATURDAY, WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON, SPAWNING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOCUSED
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE WYOMING-NEBRASKA STATE LINE.
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY DUE TO EXPECTED
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES. UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL AID LIFT.
TUESDAY...DRIER AIR INFILTRATES OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY EAST OF I-25.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 11C.
WEDNESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD INDUCING WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST OF I-25, WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AIDING IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-25.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AT MOST
TERMINALS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN AND AROUND THE KCDR
TERMINAL. THESE SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING. MAJOR IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS
AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
VISIBILITY OR CIG DROPS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SF
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