067
FXUS65 KCYS 071959
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
159 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, HAIL, AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- A RIDGE BUILDS LATE IN THE LONG TERM, DRYING THE AREA OUT AND
PERHAPS BREAKING HEAT RECORDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CURRENT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS ARE ALREADY A LITTLE TOASTY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-25 WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, EXCEPT UNDER
THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. A FEW SPOTS NEAR CHADRON AND
SCOTTSBLUFF COULD REACH 100 BEFORE STORMS MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN 40 TO 50 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE AREAS. ALOFT WE HAVE DECENT
NEAR SATURATED MID LAYERS AND A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL HELP KICK OFF
SOME ELEVATED AND HIGH BASED CONVECTION. WIND SHEAR IS LACKING IN
TODAYS ENVIRONMENT, MUCH LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE BULK WIND SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGES WHICH WILL FAVOR PULSE TYPE
STORMS WITH SHORT LIFESPANS. SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED
WITH DCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE COMBINED WITH DRY
ADIABATIC SUB CLOUD LAYER LAPSE RATES. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT PROBABILITIES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES
FAVOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH WITH THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS. TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CWA COUNTIES AND
IN THE UPPER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AREAS THERE MAY BE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE VALUES ON THE HIGHER END TO SUPPORT WINDS
TO +70 MPH. AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION WE HAVE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR CHEYENNE WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH A FAVORED PROPAGATION ALONG THE EAST AND
NORTHERN FLANKS. MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AREA WIDE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. TOWARDS
THE EVENING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE
PANHANDLE AREA. BY MIDNIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE FREE OF
STORMS, EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CARBON
COUNTY LATE IN THE NIGHT. BRIEFLY MENTION THAT SOME FIRE ZONES
IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTY WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY AREAS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WHEN RH VALUES DIP INTO THE TEENS AND WINDS INCREASE.
ADDITIONALLY, DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITION COVERAGE
IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A RED FLAG PRODUCT.
WEDNESDAY IS SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS BETTER GIVEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WELL TIMED WITH THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AND SHOULD
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK AND
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON THE LOW SIDE. HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT
AND MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL FAVOR
LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE SPREADS WILL BE LESS THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WHICH WILL HELP MORE PRECIPITATION REACH THE SURFACE. SHEAR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE
40-50 KNOT RANGES WHICH IS ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AREAS. WITH MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR THESE STORMS WILL BE
PREDISPOSED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THURSDAY...AS HAS BEEN TYPICAL IN THE PAST WEEK, A NEUTRALLY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, OR PERTURBATION ALOFT, WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA STATE LINE, WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR, SPARKING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST
OF I-25, WITH LESSER COVERAGE FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATED BY CLOUD AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, WITH 700
MB TEMPERATURES YIELDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
FRIDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT BULGING OVER EASTERN WYOMING, AND WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM 12 TO 15 CELSIUS, PRODUCING DECENT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION, CIN, THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE UNLIKELY. A WARMING TREND
DEVELOPS WITH LESS CLOUD AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES OUR REGION, WITH
QUITE DRY AIR AT LOW AND MID LEVELS, ACCOMPANIED BY 700 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM 15 TO 20 CELSIUS, THUS CHANCES FOR LATE DAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST, AND DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL. THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK PERTURBATION AND
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SPARK ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA STATE
LINE THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS
DEVELOPS FROM DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE, SPARKING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FROM DOUGLAS TO
CHADRON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
WYOMING TAFS...VFR PREVAILS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z TO 01Z AT RAWLINS,
18Z TO 00Z AT LARAMIE,AND 20Z TO 02Z AT CHEYENNE, WITH SOME
STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ALONG
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITIES. CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
GUSTY USUAL GRADIENTS WINDS UNTIL SUNSET, THEN AGAIN AFTER MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY.
NEBRASKA TAFS...VFR CONTINUES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE MOST AREAL COVERAGE AT CHADRON
AND ALLIANCE, AND LESSER SO AT SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY, WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT CHADRON AND ALLIANCE FROM 21Z TO 03Z,
WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS ALONG
WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALLIANCE AND CHADRON FROM
09Z TO 13Z. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL OCCUR UNTIL SUNSET, AND AGAIN AFTER
15Z WEDNESDAY.
AT SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY, STORMS SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
FURTHER NORTH, THOUGH OCCUR FROM 20Z TO 00Z AT SCOTTSBLUFF, AND
22Z TO 03Z AT SIDNEY, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS NEAR 45 KNOTS, ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY GRADIENT
WINDS WILL OCCUR UNTIL SUNSET, AND AGAIN AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RV
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
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