201
FXUS65 KCYS 080507
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1107 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, HAIL, AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- A RIDGE BUILDS LATE IN THE LONG TERM, DRYING THE AREA OUT AND
HEATING THINGS UP.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CURRENT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS ARE ALREADY A LITTLE TOASTY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-25 WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, EXCEPT UNDER
THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. A FEW SPOTS NEAR CHADRON AND
SCOTTSBLUFF COULD REACH 100 BEFORE STORMS MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN 40 TO 50 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE AREAS. ALOFT WE HAVE DECENT
NEAR SATURATED MID LAYERS AND A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL HELP KICK OFF
SOME ELEVATED AND HIGH BASED CONVECTION. WIND SHEAR IS LACKING IN
TODAYS ENVIRONMENT, MUCH LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE BULK WIND SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGES WHICH WILL FAVOR PULSE TYPE
STORMS WITH SHORT LIFESPANS. SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED
WITH DCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE COMBINED WITH DRY
ADIABATIC SUB CLOUD LAYER LAPSE RATES. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT PROBABILITIES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES
FAVOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH WITH THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS. TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CWA COUNTIES AND
IN THE UPPER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AREAS THERE MAY BE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE VALUES ON THE HIGHER END TO SUPPORT WINDS
TO +70 MPH. AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION WE HAVE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR CHEYENNE WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH A FAVORED PROPAGATION ALONG THE EAST AND
NORTHERN FLANKS. MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AREA WIDE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. TOWARDS
THE EVENING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE
PANHANDLE AREA. BY MIDNIGHT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE FREE OF
STORMS, EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH CARBON
COUNTY LATE IN THE NIGHT. BRIEFLY MENTION THAT SOME FIRE ZONES
IN CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTY WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY AREAS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WHEN RH VALUES DIP INTO THE TEENS AND WINDS INCREASE.
ADDITIONALLY, DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITION COVERAGE
IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A RED FLAG PRODUCT.
WEDNESDAY IS SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
APPEARS BETTER GIVEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WELL TIMED WITH THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AND SHOULD
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK AND
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL SHEAR ON THE LOW SIDE. HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT
AND MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL FAVOR
LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE SPREADS WILL BE LESS THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS WHICH WILL HELP MORE PRECIPITATION REACH THE SURFACE. SHEAR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE
40-50 KNOT RANGES WHICH IS ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AREAS. WITH MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR THESE STORMS WILL BE
PREDISPOSED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THURSDAY...AS HAS BEEN TYPICAL IN THE PAST WEEK, A NEUTRALLY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, OR PERTURBATION ALOFT, WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA STATE LINE, WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR, SPARKING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST
OF I-25, WITH LESSER COVERAGE FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATED BY CLOUD AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, WITH 700
MB TEMPERATURES YIELDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
FRIDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT BULGING OVER EASTERN WYOMING, AND WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM 12 TO 15 CELSIUS, PRODUCING DECENT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION, CIN, THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE UNLIKELY. A WARMING TREND
DEVELOPS WITH LESS CLOUD AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES OUR REGION, WITH
QUITE DRY AIR AT LOW AND MID LEVELS, ACCOMPANIED BY 700 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM 15 TO 20 CELSIUS, THUS CHANCES FOR LATE DAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST, AND DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL. THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK PERTURBATION AND
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SPARK ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE REMAINING SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. MOST TERMINALS WILL
SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WHILE PORTIONS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS. KCDR AND KAIA MAY
SEE LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z THIS MORNING.
MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN
THE MID-MORNING HOURS EVERYWHERE.
PRIMARY CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER OR STORM THE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RV
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...AM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page