644
FXUS65 KCYS 081136
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
536 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, HAIL, AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- A RIDGE BUILDS LATE IN THE LONG TERM, DRYING THE AREA OUT AND
DEVELOPING RED FLAG AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
A SMALL PLUME OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ALONG I-80 THIS MORNING. ONLY A TRACE TO COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IS
EXPECTED FROM THIS SHOWER, SO NO BENEFICIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED
UNFORTUNATELY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS HAVE INITIATION STARTING
AROUND 20Z BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL
ABOUT 00Z IN THE FORM OF LOBES OF STRONG VORTICITY. RAP HAS
3CAPE AROUND 5-600 JOULES WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1100 JOULES. THE
MODELS MAINTAIN A RATHER STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH FOR THE MID-LEVELS
WHILE THE SOUNDING INDICATES A RATHER DRY LOWER LEVEL. THIS
ENVIRONMENT BEST SUITS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE SIZED HAIL. WITH
0-6 BULK SHEAR AROUND 50-60 KTS IN THE PANHANDLE THERE'S ENOUGH
SHEAR TO SEPARATE THE STORMS UPDRAFT AND DOWNDRAFT FOR SUSTAINED
INTENSITY. GIVEN THE SETUP OF A SHORTWAVE WITH ACCOMPANYING
VORTMAXES THE HRRR AND NAM-NEST ARE PROBABLY THE MOST RELIABLE
GIVEN THEIR HISTORY WITH THIS SETUP. BOTH MODELS HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN TWO PHASES WITH THE WEAKER SET OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAPPENING FIRST. THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE IN THE
SECOND PHASE AS THE HRRR HAS ALL THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THEN DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA FOR A CLASSIC DAWES COUNTY CLIPPER
SCENARIO. THE NAM-NEST HAS ALL THE FORCING STAYING OVER OUR AREA
FROM 00Z TO 06Z AND THE PANHANDLE GETTING ALL THE STORMS. SO IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHERE THE FORCING SETS UP FOR OUR
THUNDERSTORMS TO UTILIZE. SPC HAS THE FAR-EASTERN PORTION OF
WYOMING AND THE ALL OF THE PANHANDLE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. THE
MODELS HAVE THE STORMS ENDING BETWEEN 06Z TO 08Z HOWEVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LOOKS TO LOSE THE SHEAR CLOSER TO 04Z SO OUR
SEVERE POTENTIAL WINDOW LOOKS TO BE FROM 22Z TO 04Z OR 2PM TO
10PM TOMORROW. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A WASH RINSE REPEAT OF
TODAY. THE SAME INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT HOWEVER THE BULK SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE A TINY BIT WEAKER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE
PANHANDLE DOES RECEIVE MORE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE AT THE
SURFACE THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS MEANS THE STORMS WILL
HAVE A MORE ENERGY TO UTILIZE BUT WITH WEAKER SHEAR.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO INITIATE AROUND 21Z AGAIN AND LAST UNTIL
04Z. GIVEN THE WEAKER SHEAR THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY
TO BE PULSY IN NATURE WITH DECENT MICROBURST POTENTIAL BUT ALSO
ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE HAIL WHEN THEY PULSE UP. GIVEN THE
HISTORY WITH THIS SECTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, SEVERE
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH COLLAPSING CORES AND IN THE
STRATIFORM REGION OF THE STORMS WITH ACCUMULATING HAIL WITH A
COUPLE QUARTERS THROWN IN THERE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD AROUND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO
AN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE RIDGE BECOMING PRETTY STOUT AND WILL DRY
US OUT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. NAEFS
HAS MOST OF WYOMING AND THE PANHANDLE IN THE 90TH AND ABOVE
PERCENTILE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY
IN THE LONG TERM FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENDED RED FLAG WARNING FOR
OUR ENTIRE CWA DUE TO THE ALREADY DRY FUELS AND LOW RH'S.
HOWEVER, THE IMPORTANT WIND COMPONENT MAY NOT SHOW UP WHILE
UNDER THIS BROAD RIDGE UNTIL SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GIVE
US SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WORTHY OF A RED FLAG. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE 80'S AND 90'S THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL
90'S AND 100'S BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. STAYING COOL
WILL BE A MUST AND IF YOU HAVE TO WORK OUTSIDE MAY SURE TO TAKE
PLENTY OF BREAKS AND SNACK BETWEEN MEALS SO YOUR BODY CAN RETAIN
SOME ELECTROLYTES THAT WILL BE LOST FROM SWEATING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN NEAR
KAIA TO TEMPORARILY IMPACT CEILING AND VISIBILITY. PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO DEVELOPING NEAR KCDR TO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
HOWEVER THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF RELATIVELY QUICK
WITH THIS SUMMER SUN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO OCCUR
IN TWO PHASES TODAY FOR THE WYOMING TERMINALS. FIRST PHASE LOOKS
TO START THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND 19Z FOR KLAR AND 20Z FOR
KCYS. THE SECOND PHASE LOOKS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
AFTER 23Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 03Z. THE PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 0Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING. MODELS DO
WANT TO HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DROP SOUTH OVER KCDR AROUND 04Z
FOR THE CLASSIC DAWES CLIPPER. ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO END AROUND 06Z. A NOCTURNAL INVERSION LOOKS TO SETUP AROUND
07Z CAUSING THE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 12Z
TOMORROW.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...MM
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