025
FXUS65 KCYS 100443
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1043 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL, HAIL, AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DRY AND HOT PERIOD FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES BEING
THE ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
SCATTERED RAINFALL AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE FORMING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
MOVE EASTWARDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING INTO A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER ACTIVITY. PROFILES LOOK
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS WELL, WITH HIGH BASED STORMS FROM
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS PROMOTING STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING
SMALL HAIL TO SOME SMALLER SEVERE HAIL SIZES POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE WE'LL SEE ANOTHER RISK OF FLOODING TODAY AS PWAT
VALUES CONTINUE TO SIT IN THE 0.9-1.25 INCH RANGE, GENERALLY
AROUND 100-130% OF AVERAGE. WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO TRAIN ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR, LOOK FOR THE HIGHEST RISK OF FLOODING FROM
CHEYENNE EASTWARDS THROUGH SIDNEY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
CONSOLIDATES THIS ACTIVITY INTO CLUSTERED TO LINEAR ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES EASTWARDS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, KEEPING HIGH
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS
BEGINNING TO EXIT OUR PORTION OF NEBRASKA DURING THE BEGINNING
OF THE EVENING HOURS. OUR SEVERE THREAT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BY
THE TIME THE SUN SETS, THOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
INTO FRIDAY, OUR FOCUS BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARDS HEAT AS RIDGING
STARTS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE WARMTH WON'T BEGIN TO
SCORCH US QUITE YET, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE AROUND 1-5
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80'S TO 90'S FOR THE DAY. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP OUR PWAT VALUES AROUND NORMAL, AND
A WEAK TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
WHAT'S LEFT OF THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ALONG THE BORDER
INTO COLORADO, BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEAK AND SPORADIC AT BEST.
BY THE EVENING, ANYTHING THAT IS ABLE TO FORM WILL DISSIPATE,
THE LAST GRASP OF NOTABLE MOISTURE POTENTIAL AS HEAT AND FIRE
WEATHER BECOME THE FOCAL POINT INTO THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARY CHALLENGES WILL BE THE HEAT AND
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES OUR REGION, WITH
QUITE DRY AIR AT LOW AND MID LEVELS, ACCOMPANIED BY WARM 700 MB
TEMPERATURES, THUS CHANCES FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEARLY NIL AND NON EXISTENT, AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK PERTURBATION AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, AND
MORESO ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP IT
DRY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE NIGHT,
HOWEVER RADAR SHOWS A FEW PERSISTENT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
COULD IMPACT TERMINALS IN BOTH SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GIVEN THE CALM
CONDITIONS, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING IN PLACES THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACTIVELY MOVING INTO THE AREA, THE LOW
AND MID-LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SCATTERED GUSTY
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF STRONG GUST WITH LIGHT RAIN.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SF
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