924
FXUS65 KCYS 101125
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
525 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN ALBANY COUNTY.
- STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DRY AND HOT PERIOD FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES BEING
THE ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 203 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
TODAY IS GOING TO BE RATHER BORING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND TURN ON THE BLOW DRYER FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO DRY US OUT
AND GIVE US SOME FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE RIDGE IS
SETTING UP A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH OF US IN COLORADO
TO GIVE US SOME PRETTY WEAK CHANCES FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, ONLY A VERY
SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THIS POTENTIAL RAIN AND
THE VAST MAJORITY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. THE AREA THAT MIGHT
GET SOME RAIN IS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN ALBANY AND
CARBON COUNTY, AND IF IT MAKES IT DOWN THE MOUNTAIN MAYBE CHEYENNE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC ASCENT TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS BUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE
THAT PESKY DRY LAYER ALREADY SET IT IN SO THE RAIN MAY NOT MAKE IT
TO THE GROUND BUT GIVE US SOME GUSTY SHOWERS ALSO KNOWN AS VIRGA-
BOMBS. WHICH IS ESSENTIAL A DRY MICROBURST CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50-60 MPH. THESE SHOWERS AREN'T EXPECTED TO LAST LONG
AS THE SUBSIDENT FLOW FROM THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ENTRAIN THEM
WITH DRY AIR CAUSING THEM TO DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80'S AND 90'S WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60'S SO THE PERFECT FRIDAY NIGHT TO GO OUT AND PARTAKE IN
SOME LOCAL EVENTS OR JUST HAVE A NIGHT OUT ON THE TOWN. SATURDAY,
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GROW IN STRENGTH AND BECOME ESSENTIALLY A
NICE OVEN FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. RH VALUES WILL START TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS AND THE GRASSES THAT BENEFITED FROM THE THESE LAST
OF DAYS OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN CURE LIKE THINLY SLICED FOOD IN A
DEHYDRATOR. THE WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION AS THEY
MAY NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA AS A RIDGING PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP
THE WINDS RATHER LIGHT AND SOMETIMES VARIABLE. SO A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE PANHANDLE FOR SATURDAY AND THE DAY
SHIFT MAY JUST UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNING IF THEY FEEL CONFIDENT IN
THE WINDS OR THE FIRE PARTNERS WANT ONE. EITHER WAY THE NEXT 7 DAYS
ARE NOT THE TIME TO PLAY WITH LIGHTERS AND FIRE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARY CHALLENGES WILL BE THE HEAT AND
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES OUR REGION, WITH
QUITE DRY AIR AT LOW AND MID LEVELS, ACCOMPANIED BY WARM 700 MB
TEMPERATURES, THUS CHANCES FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEARLY NIL AND NON EXISTENT, AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE. A WEAK PERTURBATION AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, AND
MORESO ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP IT
DRY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FOR
KLAR AND KCYS AROUND 00Z. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
LONG AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY. THE DRY LAYER MAY PREVENT RAIN FROM
REACHING THE GROUND RESULTING IN DRY MICROBURSTS UNDER THE
SHOWERS WITH ERRATIC WINDS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ417-418-423-430>433.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ101-
102-107-108-118-119.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ434.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NEZ002-
003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MM
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