195
FXUS65 KCYS 110006
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
606 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND INTO LARAMIE COUNTY, BUT DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT MUCH PRECIPITATION AND CAUSE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
LIGHTNING TO BE POSSIBLE.
- STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DRY AND HOT PERIOD FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES BEING THE
ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY INCREASING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SLOW COOLING OF DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MOSTLY BENIGN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND LIFT UP OVER THE REGION. FOR
TODAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD HELP TO FUEL
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LARAMIE COUNTY. HOWEVER, VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 20% RANGE AND
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS COULD PROHIBIT PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE BY THE TIME ACTIVITY MAKES IT OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN, FUELING A DRY THUNDER AND GUSTY SHOWER/VIRGA
THREAT. OTHERWISE, THE START OF OUR VERY WARM PERIOD BEGINS AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80'S TO MID 90'S TODAY.
AND TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, TEMPERATURES
RISE FURTHER WITH HIGHS IN THE WIDESPREAD UPPER 80'S TO UPPER
90'S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY ALREADY PEAKING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO ATTEMPT CREATING CONVECTION,
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO PRODUCE SOME SORT
OF INITIATION OFF THIS FEATURE, BUT THE INVERTED V FEATURE WILL
BE EVEN DEEPER ON SATURDAY, SO THE CHANCE OF VIRGA ACTUALLY
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE TOMORROW FEEL SLIM TO NONE. INSTEAD
WE'LL LIKELY JUST GET ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY CONDITIONS FROM
THESE ATTEMPTS AT PRECIPITATION. FINALLY, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT BEGINNING TOMORROW FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR, AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH MONDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONE IN CARBON COUNTY WHERE
FUELS ARE CRITICAL, AS WELL AS FOR OUR WYOMING ZONES AND THE
NORTHERNMOST NEBRASKA ZONE AS WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO GUST ALONGSIDE THE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARY CHALLENGES WILL BE THE HEAT AND
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A 5980 DEKAMETER 500 MB RIDGE LIES OVER
WYOMING SUNDAY MORNING, MOVING TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLANES MONDAY
MORNING, AND THEN REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLANES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGESTING TYPICAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CREEPING INTO OUR COUNTIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPARK
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
LARAMIE VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH COVERAGE OF
STORMS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THAT AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD.
RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES OUR REGION, WITH QUITE DRY AIR AT LOW AND
MID LEVELS, ACCOMPANIED BY TYPICALLY TOASTY 700 MB TEMPERATURES,
THUS CHANCES FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEARLY
NIL AND NON EXISTENT, AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 90 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY SPARK ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, AND MORESO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AGAIN
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO
OUR CWA, COUNTY WARNING AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BULGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NEAR THE I-25
CORRIDOR WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KLAR AND KCYS SITES FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING TODAY, IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE 850/700
MB THETA-E RIDGE AXISES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
WYOMING TAFS...VFR PREVAILS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE KCYS SITE THROUGH
01Z OR 02Z, PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS AT CHEYENNE, WITH
LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE, WIND EDDY EFFECTS AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. AT LARAMIE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH
01Z, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
THE RECENT HOURLY RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT, LEADING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING AT KLAR AND KCYS.
WENT WITH PROB30S AT LARAMIE AND TEMPO AT CHEYENNE UNTIL 01Z OR
02Z RESPECTIVELY. WITH RELATIVELY STEEP DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES AIDING IN DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45
KNOTS FROM SOME GUSTY SHOWERS AND HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
ALWAYS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT TURBULENCE, WIND EDDY EFFECTS
AND GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT RAWLINS. AT
ALL SITES, SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY THIS EVENING, WITH AS USUAL,
GUSTY MIX DOWN AND GRADIENT WINDS UNTIL SUNSET, AND AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY.
NEBRASKA TAFS...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL, EXCEPT AT SIDNEY THIS
EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A FEW HIGH BASED CU, CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING, BUT NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL BLOWOFF CLOUDS AT SIDNEY
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. GUSTY MIX DOWN AND GRADIENT WINDS UNTIL
SUNSET, AND AGAIN AFTER 15Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ417-418-423-430>433.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ101-
102-107-108-118-119.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ434.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NEZ002-
003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
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