637
FXUS65 KCYS 131940
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
140 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DRY AND HOT PERIOD FOR
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES BEING
THE ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- EXPECT A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY,
HELPING TO PRODUCE A SLOW INCREASE IN LATE DAY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND HOT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY, WITH SOME
SWAYING POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BUT ULTIMATELY ENDING
RIGHT BACK WHERE IT BEGAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SMALL
SHIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO DROP EVER SO
SLIGHTLY, BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH RELIEF AS TEMPERATURES HOLD
STEADY IN THE UPPER 80'S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS MUCH LIKE TODAY,
CONTINUING OUR HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING
AN ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT, WHILE NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT HIGH WIND HAZARDS, WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL
OUR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OUR SUMMER DRY HEAT CONTINUES TO PERSIST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM WE
MAY FINALLY SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AT LEAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS TO APPROACH OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER WESTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN COLORADO, THUS DRY.
THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE SOME MONSOONAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ADVECT
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES LIKE CARBON COUNTY, PRODUCING ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. DRY ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER OUR REGION, WHILE
THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE,
HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY WEST OF I-25.
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING PARKED OVER WYOMING, AND
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PRODUCING ENOUGH CIN, CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION, WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...LOW, AND ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES
SOMEWHAT, THUS WE ANTICIPATE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LATE DAY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
SNOWY, SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES.
MONDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS INCREASES FURTHER, AIDING
IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN LATE DAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE,
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TO SCATTERED, 30 TO 60 PERCENT POPS, WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST TO
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE ALOFT. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA TAFS...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAIL. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT WINDS AT RAWLINS, THEN WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ417>420-423-
427-430>433.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ101-
102-107-108-118-119.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ434>437.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ002-
003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page