384
FXUS65 KCYS 141727
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DRY AND HOT PERIOD FOR
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES BEING
THE ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- EXPECT A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY,
HELPING TO PRODUCE A SLOW INCREASE IN LATE DAY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
GUESS WHAT!?! THE RIDGE IS STILL HERE, IT DOES WEAKEN SOME AS ITS
CENTRAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE KIND OF DRIFT EASTWARD. SO TODAY WILL
BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL PEAK HEATING AROUND 3PM AND
THEN SLOWLY STARTS TO GET COOLER AROUND 5-6PM. THE HEAT ADVISORY AND
RED FLAG WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90'S WITH SOME AREAS REACHING 100.
BUT, IF YOU'RE IN LARAMIE OR OUT HIKING IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9,000FT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE 70'S AND 80'S.
WEDNESDAY, THAT CORE OF CENTRAL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO TRICKLE IN OVER THE
REGION. BY RH STANDARDS THE REGION MAY BE IN MARGINAL RED FLAG
CRITERIA WITH RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT UNLESS YOU'RE IN
CARBON COUNTY THEN YOU GET BETWEEN 10 AND 15 WHICH IS STILL AN
IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO THESE LAST FEW DAYS. THE REASON FOR THIS
CHANGE CAN BE SEEN IN MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR OR EVEN IN THE LONG WAVE
IR CHANNELS. BASICALLY WE HAVE A SYSTEM MOVING UP THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. AND SINCE THE CENTRAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD THAT SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH AWAY THE WEAKER OUTER
PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE AWAY AND FUNNEL THAT MOIST OCEANIC AIR TOWARDS
THE INTERIOR. IF THAT CORE DIDN'T DECIDE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THEN WE
WOULD BE STUCK IN THIS HOT DRY PATTERN AND YOU WOULD SEE MY INITIALS
ON THE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT AND FIRE PRODUCTS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. AND THAT WOULD BE BECAUSE IN PHYSICS THE HIGH ALWAYS WINS AND
THE LOWS COMBINE. BUT SOME MOISTURE IS NOW GETTING TO US SO YOU DONT
HAVE TO SEE MM ON HEADLINES (ITS GREAT). A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
START TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND SEND SHORTWAVES INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO CREATE SOME THUNDERSTORM AND DRY LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO DROP INTO THE 80'S AND 90'S AND RH LEVELS DROP INTO THE 20'S AND
30'S SO WHILE WE WOULD STILL BE WARM AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE CONDITIONS AREN'T WITHIN THE CRITERIA TO CONTINUE
THE HEAT ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING. CHADRON (DAWES COUNTY) DOES
GET CLOSE AS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IS FORECASTED TO BE 97. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT FROM EITHER NOT REACHING TO 97 OR NOT GO HIGHER THAN 97.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER OUR REGION, WHILE
THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE,
HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY WEST OF I-25.
SATURDAY...WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING PARKED OVER WYOMING, AND
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PRODUCING ENOUGH CIN, CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION, WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...LOW, AND ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES
SOMEWHAT, THUS WE ANTICIPATE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LATE DAY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
SNOWY, SIERRA MADRE AND LARAMIE RANGES.
MONDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS INCREASES FURTHER, AIDING
IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN LATE DAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE,
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING TO SCATTERED, 30 TO 60 PERCENT POPS, WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVER KRWL IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE CLEAR
ELSEWHERE. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT TERMINALS,
GUSTING BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET IS SET TO
DEVELOP AROUND 03Z TO KEEP TERMINALS GUSTY TO 30 KNOTS. THIS
JET SUBSIDES AROUND 08Z AT MOST TERMINALS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH THE SAME VFR CONDITIONS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ417>420-423-
427-430>433.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ101-
102-107-108-118-119.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ434>437.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ002-
003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RV
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