663
FXUS65 KCYS 150005
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- MONSOON FLOW IN THE LONG TERM INTENSIFIES, LOWERING OUR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS IN
PLACE. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE COMING DAYS, LEADING
TO A *SLIGHT* REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW 100S, SOME LOCATIONS
WILL SEE A RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S. REGARDLESS, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A
SLIGHT BREEZE ACROSS THE AREA THAT MAY GIVE A LIGHT REPRIEVE
FROM THE HEAT. THURSDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCE IN CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THURSDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
WESTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN WYOMING ON THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT,
HOWEVER MOST, IF NOT ALL STORMS, SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA.
BUT, THE EXTRA MOISTURE COULD CAUSE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER LATER
IN THE DAY. SOME MODELS SHOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING IN
THE SIERRA MADRE OR SNOWY RANGE, SO CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATE NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S IN THE BASINS AND MID 60S FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS AREAS. THE RIDGE IS STILL DOMINATING THE WEATHER AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO WHAT IT WAS THIS PAST WEEKEND. A RETROGRADING
CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL LOWER DAM HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AND ELONGATE
THE RIDGE AXIS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE WILL REACH THE AREA AND MAY PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRE RANGES AND POINTS WEST. THE MEAN FLOW WILL CAUSE STORMS TO
DRIFT SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S AND CLEAR
SKIES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY OF US. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT THANKFULLY WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY
STRONG AND VALUES DON'T STAY BELOW 15 PERCENT LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS.
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN HOLDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE BUILDS
SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DECAYS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR CWA ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY WITH MORE PLACES HITTING THE 100S EAST OF I-25, WITH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY APPEARING TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUES.
THE MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC
OCEAN DURING THIS TIME. INTERESTINGLY OUR WEATHER COULD BE
INFLUENCED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY STARTING MONDAY. A
DISTURBANCE IS FORMING IN THE EAST PACIFIC WHICH COULD MATURE AND
MOVE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST.
MOISTURE FROM THIS CYCLONE WOULD THEN BE CHANNELED NORTH IN THIS
TROUGHING FLOW AND ADD TO THE MONSOON. THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE FUTURE SYSTEM AND WOULD ONLY IMPACT THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE MONSOON AND JET POSITIONS FOR OUR AREA. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PWATS OF ABOVE 1 INCH
STARTING MONDAY. WHILE AN IMPERFECT PROXY TO GAUGING THE MAGNITUDE
OF THIS MOISTURE, WE TURN TO THE RIVERTON PWAT CLIMATE FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE MAXIMUM MEASURED PWAT FOR THIS TIME IS BETWEEN 1.10 AND
1.20 INCHES. THE GFS IS GIVING PWATS OF 1.10 INCHES FOR THE RAWLINS
AREA. SO IN OTHER WORDS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HOLDING AN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. STORMS AND SHOWERS CHANCES
NATURALLY INCREASE WITH ALL THIS AMBIENT MOISTURE. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. THE WPC HAS MARGINAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOKS FOR AREAS WEST WITH THE CURRENT MONSOONAL FLOW, SO
IT WOULD NOT BE THAT FAR OF A STRETCH THAT FUTURE OUTLOOKS COVER OUR
AREA AS WELL FOR THIS PERIOD. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THE EXTRA
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
HOPEFULLY MOST LOCATIONS STAYING BELOW 100. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY, SO MUCH THE SAME WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED THEN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL NUDGE EAST A BIT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH WINDS NOT AS GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL
TERMINALS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS, MAINLY
BETWEEN 17Z AND 02Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT KCDR TONIGHT DUE TO
THE LOW LEVEL JET.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ417>420-423-
427-430>433.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ101-
102-107-108-118-119.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ434>437.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ002-
003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RV
AVIATION...TJT
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