436
FXUS65 KCYS 161747
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
A MUCH AWAITED COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
- SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST 100+ DAY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OR
SO, WITH REDUCED FIRE CONCERNS ALSO ARRIVING WITH COOLER
WEATHER.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO RETURN AS EARLY AS MONDAY,
LEADING TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING
TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM OUT. 500MB FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE MONSOON WILL
ATTEMPT TO START ORGANIZING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT LIKELY DOES NOT GET ORGANIZED UNTIL NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT, LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED UNDER THE
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. 700MB FLOW SUGGESTS A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO
WHAT HAS BEEN CONTINUED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH WINDS KICKING UP
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN DYING OFF AFTER
SUNSET OR SO EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE A LOW-
LEVEL JET KICKS IN MOST NIGHTS. 700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WITH DAILY 700MB TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 15 TO 20C RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. AS A RESULT, VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE, WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-100S EACH AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING, WHILE THE COOLEST
CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE LARAMIE VALLEY. WITH THE MONSOON TRYING
TO DEVELOP, MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY, MAINLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ONGOING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (~15%) FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN LARGELY DRY.
ADDITIONALLY, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, LIKELY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT, LEADING TO
ELEVATED, BUT NOT CRITICAL, FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ALL HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AND NO ADDITIONAL
FIRE OR HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME LONG RANGE MODELS
KEEP THIS RIDGING IN PLACE WELL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK BEFORE
POTENTIALLY STARTING TO BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE
ITSELF LOOKS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. 500MB FLOW CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT THE MONSOON WILL DEVELOP TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK, LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. PRIOR
TO THIS, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN SUNDAY, LEADING
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER-80S TO THE MID-100S. THIS SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM AS A LONG-AWAITED COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO ARRIVE TO START THE WEEK. MONDAY ONWARDS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS
BACK IN THE MID-70S TO UPPER-80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE AND SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE, AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT DROP NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE PAST WEEK,
LEADING TO MUCH REDUCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY ONWARDS, BUT
ESPECIALLY INTO MID-WEEK. SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CANNOT BE
COMPLETED RULED OUT AS THE MONSOON MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, EXACT DATES
ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MANY THINGS MAY CHANGE (SEVERE WEATHER
WISE) OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
DOMINANT RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ALOFT, LEADING TO A PAUCITY, OR
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CLOUDS, OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WEST OF I-25. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MINIMAL FLIGHT CONCERNS OR ISSUES WITH VFR
CONTINUING. THE TYPICAL GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR
UNTIL SUNSET DUE TO MIX DOWN WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS, THEN WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET, AND ONCE AGAIN
BEGIN THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT LARAMIE
AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. MINIMAL WINDS ELSEWHERE AFTER MID MORNING
FRIDAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...RUBIN
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