202
FXUS65 KCYS 160908
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
308 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS SATURDAY
FOR GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 60 MPH.
- DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THAT PREVENTED
TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING OVER NIGHT COMPARED TO THE REGIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. IT'S A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF THERE IS ENOUGH TIME LEFT FOR THE PANHANDLE TO COOL DOWN ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO JUSTIFY THE FREEZE WARNING BUT THAT REGION WAS LEFT IN
JUST IN CASE. OTHERWISE ALMOST ALL OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING MINUS GOSHEN
COUNTY IS 30 DEGREES OR BELOW ALREADY AT 2AM. WITH THE SNOW PACK
BEING "FRESH" BUT RELATIVELY THIN IT WAS A CHALLENGE TO DETERMINE
HOW LOW TO DROP THE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A BLEND
OF HRRR, NBM, AND CANADIAN WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES WEST OF I25 AND
A BLEND OF HRRR AND NBM WAS USED FOR AREAS EAST OF I-25 AND INTO THE
PANHANDLE. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES GEFS WAS THE HIGHEST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE AT KLAR AT 25 DEGREES AND THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE WAS THE LOWEST AT 16 DEGREES BUT THE CANADIAN DOES HAVE A
HISTORY OF CAPTURING THOSE COLDER EVENTS THE BEST. THE EURO ENS WAS
IN THE MIDDLE AT AROUND 19F SO THE OVERALL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FOR
LARAMIE STAYED AROUND THERE. THIS AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL HELP ADVECT IN SOME WARMER AIR TO HELP REBOUND THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50'S FOR A NICE SEASONABLE DAY IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE HOURLY TREND FOR TEMPERATURES IS PROBABLY THE HARDEST PART
TO TRY TO FORECAST CORRECTLY SINCE HALF THE FORECAST AREA HAD A
SLIGHT SNOWPACK TO HELP REALLY COOL THINGS DOWN OVERNIGHT AND THE
OVER HALF IS STILL RELATIVELY BARE GROUND SINCE ALMOST ALL THE
PRECIPITATION CAME DOWN AS RAIN 24-36 HOURS AGO. BUT OTHERWISE THIS
RIDGE WILL KEEP THE SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY SEASONABLE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES OFF INTO THE EAST.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF COLORADO. THIS BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
TIGHTEN OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO GIVE US
ANOTHER TASTE OF A WYOMING WINTER. **ENTER GOT MEME OF NED STARK
HERE** A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR I-80 CORRIDOR NEAR ARLINGTON
AND I-25 BORDEAUX AT 6AM (12Z) THROUGH 7PM (01Z) FOR WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH. WITH THIS BEING A PRIMARILY A GRADIENT DRIVEN EVENT ITS
KIND OF HARD TO GAUGE THE TIMING HOWEVER THE CRAIG TO CASPER 850MB
GRADIENT EXCEEDS 50M AROUND 12Z AND DROPS BELOW 50M AROUND 18Z. BUT
THERE ARE SOME BLIPS OF INCREASED INTENSITY AT THE 700MB LEVEL PAST
18Z SO THE WATCH ENDS AT 01Z AROUND THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN AND
THE 700MB JETS REALLY DROPS OFF. ALSO, WITHOUT THE DEFINITIVE
SUPPORT OF THE 700MB JET IT ALSO MAKES IT A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST DEFINITIVE HIGH WIND INTENSITY BUT THIS IS ALSO WHERE
PATTERN RECOGNITION FROM LOCAL FORECASTERS REALLY KICKS IN AS
OPPOSED TO FORECASTERS SITTING IN OFFICE ON THE EAST COAST
FORECASTING AT A NATIONAL LEVEL. THERE'S A HIGHER LEVEL OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDS BEING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH THIS EVENT
IN OUR WIND PRONES THEN GENERALLY SAYING THE WINDS WILL DEFINITELY
EXCEED 58 MPH AS IMPLIED WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING. OUR IN-HOUSE WIND
MODEL ALSO DEPICTS MOMENTARY BLIPS OF HIGH WIND SPEEDS GIVING MORE
CONFIDENCE INTO THE 50 TO 60 MPH SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THUS SUPPORTING A WATCH ISSUANCE THAN A WARNING. WINDS
WERE ALSO INCREASED FROM THE NBM AS THEY WERE A LITTLE LOW BUT THE
NBM DID AT LEAST CAPTURE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE WINDS COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING AREA. FINALLY, THE LAST PIECE OF EVIDENCE IN THE
ELEVATED WINDS FORECAST CAME FROM THE OMEGA FIELDS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. LOOKING AT THIS FIELD THERE IS A SLIGHT MOUNTAIN WAVE
FEATURE WITH THE RISING AND SINKING MOTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE
ITS NOT THE STRONGEST SINKING AND RISING MOTION TYPICALLY SEEN IN
OUR WINTER HIGH WIND EVENTS, THE SIGNAL WAS STILL THERE AND EVEN
WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS EXCEEDING 55MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH THE 700MB TEMPS STAYING AROUND 6C
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY AROUND THE MID 30'S AND 40'S
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL BE MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING, THOUGH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO
DISRUPT THIS FEATURE FROM GROWING STRONGER AND BRINING MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS, WHILE MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
WEAK CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE LONG TERM
STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND EXTENDING UP TOWARDS OUR REGION, WHILE A
WEAK LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE MOVES
INLAND AND UP TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE CONTINUING
TO WEAKEN. THIS SYSTEM, WHILE WEAK AND MOSTLY NON-IMPACTFUL,
WILL AT LEAST HELP TO STAVE OFF THE RIDGE FROM STRENGTHENING
OVER THE REGION WHILE ALSO BRINGING A QUICK AND WEAK SHOT OF
MOISTURE THAT SHOULD FUEL A FEW WEAK UPPER ELEVATION SHOWERS IN
THE REGION. WE WILL BE CLEARING OUT ON MONDAY AGAIN BEFORE FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP
PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST AND THEN MOVES
INLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM MOISTURE IN, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INCREASING
CHANCES OF UPSLOPE INDUCED PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE AIDED BY
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW, THOUGH ONCE AGAIN NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. UNDER
THIS PATTERN LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LARGELY THE SAME
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS HIGHS SIT GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (60'S TO UPPER 70'S), WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING
AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE NEARING 80 DEGREES, BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THIS WARM. OTHERWISE, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES PRESENT OVER OUR AREA, LOOK FOR LARGELY BENIGN
CONDITIONS UNTIL LIKELY JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM INTO THE
WEEKEND AFTER NEXT. THERE IS OVERALL MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST AS ENSEMBLES AND THEIR CLUSTERS ARE LARGELY
SIMILAR IN THEIR EXPECTATIONS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN,
THOUGH DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO ARISE ON HOW QUICKLY THE PACIFIC
LOW AT THE END OF THE FORECAST WILL MOVE INLAND, BUT THIS
SHOULDN'T CREATE DRASTIC CHANGES AT LEAST TO THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT FZFG
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KLAR, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT KCYS AND KSNY MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT THESE LIGHTER WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ101-102-
104>111-113-115>119.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WYZ106-110.
NE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ002-003-
019>021-054-055-095-096.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RZ
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