082
FXUS65 KCYS 162129
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
329 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE USUAL SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WIND PRONE AREA, ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX. WIND GUSTS OF
55 TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A CLOUDLESS, CLEAR DAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL STAY HERE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
AS COLD AS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT TURNING WINDS MORE WESTERLY. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF
THE WIND WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM TANKING LIKE THEY DID
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS MSLP GRADIENTS
STEEPEN ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IN LEE
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO WILL
CAUSE THE TIGHTENING GRADIENTS. CAG TO CPR 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENTS
WILL ALSO INCREASE, REACHING OVER 50 METERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THIS IS A GOOD INDICATION OF POTENTIAL HIGH WINDS IN THE ARLINGTON
AREA. MSLP GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA SEEM SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH
TO GET HIGH WINDS AT BORDEAUX AS WELL. IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS OCCURRING AT BORDEAUX DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, WENT A HEAD AND UPGRADED THE HIGH
WIND WATCHES FOR THESE ZONES TO WARNINGS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM SATURDAY. GIVEN THAT THESE IS
MINIMAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS EVENT, HIGH WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE MARGINAL, WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 55 TO
65 MPH RANGE. WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN SLOWLY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP PLAY A ROLE
IN THE WARM, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL AID 90TH PERCENTILE 700 MB TEMPERATURES
IN ACHIEVING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. TO THE WEST, HIGHS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.
AMPLE SUNSHINE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THIS IS A RESULT FROM THE FLATTENING RIDGE
SENDING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LUCKILY, STILL LOOKING
AT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY, MAKING FOR A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK IN THE LONG
TERM, BUT THIS PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO BE BROKEN UP BY A DEEP
PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL ENCROACH OUR REGION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAY STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOSTLY
HOLDING CONTROL OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THEN JUST
TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOSTLY NON-
IMPACTFUL, THIS FEATURE WILL AT LEAST BRING A VERY LOW END
CHANCE OF SOME HIGH ELEVATION PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH A SMALL
BUMP IN MOISTURE. THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY
WHILE WE SIT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE SOUTHEASTERN
US AND A DEEP PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INLAND BY LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE NEXT
NOTEWORTHY SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA AS WE SEE
PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
START ANOTHER COOLING TREND THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT MOSTLY SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES DAY TO DAY AS HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 6 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE 60'S TO 70'S, WITH LOWS SIMILARLY
WARM IN THE 40'S. ANY DROP IN TEMPERATURES WOULD OCCUR JUST
BEYOND THE LONG TERM AFTER THE PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES IN, AND THE
MOST IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES SIMILARLY JUST BEYOND THIS
FORECAST TIME AS WELL. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD, BUT
THAT WILL BE ENDING BY THE WEEKEND AFTER NEXT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND SKC EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN
CONCERNS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS, PRIMARILY IMPACTING WY TERMINALS AND KCDR WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS FROM A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE PREVAILING WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ106-
110.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG
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