674
FXUS63 KDDC 142342
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
542 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- ACCUMULATING RAINFALL AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND EXTENDING INTO
MONDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES (80%) AND AMOUNTS (IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH) WILL BE ACROSS THE RED HILL REGION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE
COLORADO LINE IS BASED ON VARYING DEGREES OF UNCERTAINTY.
- STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING MID WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS LIKELY
(60-70%) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
- CURRENTLY MONITORING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
AN 850 MB RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, AS
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FALL TO SUB FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. GUSTS WILL DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS CIRRUS CONTINUED TO
SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES. WARNING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND, AS THE
UPPER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
AND AN UPPER JET EXPANDING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST –
NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS, DRAWING BETTER DOWNSLOPING AIR INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES COULD BE COMMON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES IT’S EVOLUTION INTO A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND, THE MAIN 3 GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODELS CANADIAN/GFS/EC DO HAVE DECENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING INTO WEST TEXAS.
ESAT (ENSEMBLE SITUATION AWARENESS TABLE) IS INDICATING UP TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MEAN
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT –
AND THAT’S INTO THE 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
WITHIN 25 MILE OF A POINT IS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO (AT LEAST 5%)
FROM ABOUT HIGHWAY 23 (DIGHTON-MEADE) AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT
SO OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH THESE PATTERNS OFTEN
CENTERS ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH CAN OFTEN DIG
FARTHER SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS AS LATENT HEAT RELEASED BY
CONVECTION CAN CHANGE THE PATH OF THE PV ANOMALY. IF WE FOLLOW
THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES AS REASONABLE EXPECTED AMOUNTS, MED
LODGE MIGHT SEE BETWEEN 1.5 INCHES ON THE LOW END TO AS MUCH AS
3 INCHES OVER A 48 HOURS ENDING MONDAY EVENING. LIKEWISE FATHER
EAST,T HE UNCERTAINTY WILL HAVE A HIGHER IMPACT AS THE SAME
RANGE IS LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH AND A
HALF FOR GARDEN CITY.
REGARDLESS OF RAIN AMOUNTS, MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO POUR
IN BEHIND THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK. TYPICALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN KANSAS MIGHT BE UNDERDONE RIGHT NOW BY
THE DAY 6 NBM 4.2 WITH THESE 20 KNOTS NORTHWEST WINDS, AND AT
THAT POINT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE STACKING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MID LEVEL JET PLACEMENT. WEDNESDAY’S MAX TEMPERATURES
ARE ARE REPRESENTED AS COLDER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES THAN THE
GFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS - BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH
HIGHS NOT EXCEEDING THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
AND THEN REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASING TO 13-16 KTS BY 17-20Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH
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