527
FXUS63 KDDC 152012
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
212 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES (90%) AND AMOUNTS (IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH) WILL BE ACROSS THE RED HILL REGION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS
(STREET FLOODING) IS POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
- STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING MID WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS LIKELY
(70-80%) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
- CURRENTLY MONITORING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASINGLY STEADILY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY RAPIDLY EASTWARD. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY, AND 140 KNOT UPPER
LEVEL JET MAY BE SPILLING IN CIRRUS ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS MODERATE GUST
INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. MID AND UPPER 60S BY LATE MORNING
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS BY MID
AFTERNOON, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A FACTOR CIRRUS/OPAQUENESS
OF THE SKY COVER.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE COLDER SURFACE RIDGING GETS ESTABLISHED
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AS A CUTOFF LOW SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS WILL SETUP A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL SPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. THE LATEST ESAT (ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE) CONTINUES TO SHOW 99TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, AT THE 3RD TO 4TH STANDARD DEVIATION
RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. DEFINITELY AN ANOMALOUS EVENT
AS THE EFI SHIFT OF TAILS SHOWS A 2 TO 5 CONTOUR ACROSS THE 0.8
AND HIGHER SHADED REGION . THAT SAID - THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK IS ONLY SHOWING A MARGINAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WITHING 25
MILES OF A POINT POTENTIAL (AT LEAST 5 % AREAL COVERAGE). THIS
MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND URBAN /STREET
FLOODING ISSUES ON MONDAY, BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT FOR FLASH FLOOD
RISK.
AS FAR AS PROJECTION FOR PRECIPITATION, THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILES OF NBM INPUTS ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED AS REASONABLE
RANGES – WHICH IN THIS CASE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS NEAR MEDICINE LODGE
COULD BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 INCHES AND 3.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIKEWISE, FARTHER WEST, GARDEN CITY BETWEEN A QUARTER
AND A N INCH AND A HALF. AREAS FROM SCOTT CITY TO THE COLORADO
LINE COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HOWEVER, IF CONVECTION
DISRUPTS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER TX, IT’S POSSIBLE THOSE AREAS GET
LEFT OUT OF THE RAIN ALTOGETHER.
BEYOND THE WET PERIOD, THE AREA WILL BECOME WINDY BEHIND THE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER AIR COULD
DRIVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) DOWN INTO THE TEENS
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS. SNOW WHILE POSSIBLE IN THIS COLDER
ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE ONLY WEAK FORCING WOULD BE
PRESENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
REGIONAL SATELLITE WAS SHOWING CLEAR SKY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS, AS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. A BETTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY AIR WILL
PROMOTE EFFICIENT MIXING FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BASICALLY MITIGATING FOG RISK THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CREATING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHERE GUSTS ARE
ABLE TO DECOUPLE TOWARD THE MORNING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
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