757
FXUS63 KDDC 161102
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
502 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (20%
CHANCE) WEST OF A ULYSSES TO HUGOTON LINE THIS AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES (90%) AND AMOUNTS (IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH) WILL BE ACROSS THE RED HILL REGION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS
(STREET FLOODING) IS POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
- STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING MID WEEK AS MUCH COLDER AIR
RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS LIKELY
(70-90%) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY, A DRY WEST WIND WILL RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO THE 15–20% RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
LATE TODAY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THESE LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES DEVELOP, WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE. HOWEVER,
THERE MAY BE A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD WHERE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. THIS COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE THE DANGER OF FIRES BECOMING
DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ALL SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
MONDAY, BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF
AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT,
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE 500 MB JET STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND 850–700 MB FORCING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
NORTHWARD MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
AS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...THE LATEST ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, PRIMARILY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183 AND SOUTH OF LARNED, AS THE AREA OF BEST FORCING
(WARM AIR ADVECTION, FRONTOGENESIS, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT) ALONG
WITH BEST MOISTURE RETURN (PWATS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN)
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR THAT THIS
WILL BE THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK OF RAINFALL TOTALS OF +2".
GIVEN THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL THIS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED MINOR
WATER ISSUES. THOSE IN THIS AREA SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THIS UPCOMING EVENT GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WEST
OF HIGHWAY 183, CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IS
DECREASING. MAIN REASONS FOR DECREASING CONFIDENCE IS THAT THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS CURRENTLY HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS EVENT
DIFFERING FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH, PRIMARILY DUE TO MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND HOW QUICKLY
THIS UPPER LOW CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONAL GIVEN THE
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER COULD ALSO INFLUENCE THE UPPER LOWS TRACK BY ALTERING THE
ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE FIELD THROUGH LATENT HEAT RELEASE. SOME
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS (20–30%) THIS MORNING NOW ARE NOW SHOWING
LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS, AN INCREASE FROM THE 10–20% FROM THE
ENSEMBLES THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY
GIVEN MODELS THAT FAR OUT HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK
MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE IS STILL AN 80% OR GREATER CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALONG WITH THIS RAINFALL,
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S, IF THAT. THIS COOL DOWN EARLY IN
THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EVEN COLDER AIR MID WEEK AS GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE WIND CHILLS
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S (30-50%) BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ARE LIKELY (60–90%) ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A HAYS TO
ASHLAND LINE.
FEW250
FM171100 01007KT P6SM
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 21Z TODAY
AND 00Z SUNDAY AS THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH NORTHWEST AS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE
(CEILINGS > 10000FT AGL) WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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