425
FXUS63 KDDC 170515
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1115 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY QUIET TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SHOWERS BY MED LODGE AM
- RAIN MAKER STILL ON TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AM
- MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE E AND SE COUNTIES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY QUIET. A WEAK FROPA IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING N
TO NE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SOME MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE
FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR MEDICINE LODGE BY THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FA WILL SEE MAINLY DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER OTHER THAN THE SHIFTING WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NW ZONES TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SE ZONES,
WHERE MORE MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE PRESENT TO LIMIT THE
LOWS. OTHER THAN THE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE CONTINUES, THE
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY QUIET. WE WILL SEE COOLER HIGHS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 50S PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
60S WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS, MESO MODELS, AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR SEEING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
FORECAST PWAT'S DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER
1.00". THIS IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, AND IS CLOSE TO THE MAX
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW HIGH THE FINAL PWAT VALUE PEAKS OUT DURING
THE EVENT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3" STILL LOOKS VERY
POSSIBLE FOR THE SE COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE LARGE RAIN AMOUNT GRADIENT
NORTHWEST OF THESE ZONES, WITH VALUES DROPPING OFF RATHER QUICKLY.
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER RUNS SHOW THIS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS.
BOTH EPS AND GEFS PROBABILITIES OF RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 1" (70 TO 100%
PROBABILITIES) ARE ALSO MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. THE EXACT
DROP OFF GRADIENT IN RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES ARE VERY
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THERE ALSO IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAILURE POINT
TO HAVE A DIABATIC PV ADJUSTMENT DUE TO LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF STORMS
TO THE S AND SE. THIS COULD THEN SHIFT THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
TO THE S, SE, OR E. THIS IS PURELY SPECULATIVE AT THIS TIME, MAINLY
BASED OFF PREVIOUSLY WEATHER SYSTEMS/EXPERIENCE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
GETTING SHORT CHANGED ON RAIN AMOUNTS. TIME TO TELL AS THE MODELS
EVOLVE TO LOOK FOR ANY DEFINITIVE TRENDS OVER TIME.
ANYWAY, THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW DRIVING ALL THIS WILL FINALLY EJECT
OFF TO THE NE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A DRIER FORECAST IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. SO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT AT MOISTURE. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS LOOKING UNEVENTFUL WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KS, FLIPPING WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-13 KT RANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OTHERWISE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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