602
FXUS63 KDDC 170805
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
205 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT STILL ON TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND FOLLOWING THE RAINFALL
EVENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER
THE CONUS, WITH A POWERFUL TROUGH CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE US EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE,
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETED ITS TREK
THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK OF THIS FLOW WILL
USHER IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF OUR
CWA, WITH THE RED HILLS REGION SEEING SOME LOW 60S.
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE THE SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, REACHING JUST WEST OF
LUBBOCK, TX, BY 12Z MONDAY. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITHIN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE
POLEWARD FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OK INTO
SOUTHWEST KS BEGINNING AROUND 00Z MONDAY. HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF US-83
DURING THE 09-15Z MONDAY TIME FRAME. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS
FIRST WAVE, CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CULMINATE IN OCCLUSION, WITH EXTENSIVE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA. HREF MEMBERS AGREE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS SECOND WAVE WILL FALL BETWEEN US-83
AND US-183 INITIALLY, MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THERE WITH RAIN
FINALLY ENDING AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. ONCE ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THE
PROBABILITY OF TOTAL QPF EXCEEDING 1" FROM THE HREF IS 50-100%
FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A HUGOTON TO ELLIS LINE, AND THE
PROBABILITY OF QPF EXCEEDING 2" IS IN THE 50-80% RANGE EAST OF
US-183 AND SOUTH OF US-56.
ALL OF THE ABOVE SAID, IT MUST BE NOTED THAT SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, AND THEREFORE THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KS AS WELL. ALL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
AND THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MAY ENGENDER A STRONGER EASTWARD COMPONENT TO THE
TROUGH'S EJECTION PATH. THE SHEAR STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW MAY
RENDER THIS CONCERN MOOT, HOWEVER EVEN A SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
EJECTION PATH COULD RESULT IN SOME OF OUR CWA RECEIVING MUCH
LESS PRECIPITATION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, MAINLY OUR WESTERN
ZONES. AS SUCH, TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO
IDENTIFY ANY EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE WAVE EJECTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT, MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES AGREE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HANG AROUND
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE
LONGWAVE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, BELOW
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KS, FLIPPING WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-13 KT RANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OTHERWISE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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