784
FXUS63 KDDC 181120
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
520 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS APPEARS ON
TRACK, WITH A LARGE AREA OF 1-2+" OF QPF EXPECTED.
- COOL TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
IS 0%.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KDDC RADAR OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS ADVANCING POLEWARD AHEAD OF A POWERFUL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TX, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
APPEARS MUTED, LIKELY OWING TO A LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY,
WHICH MEANS ITS GAME ON FOR AN ALL-DAY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS
OUR AREA AS ANY POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL BE TOO WEAK TO
IMPACT THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE ENOUGH. PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AS THE UPPER WAVE
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD, DUMPING 0.5-1+" OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA BY 18Z, WITH THE ONLY UNLUCKY FOLKS BEING THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND WEST ZONES WHERE LESS THAN 0.5" IS EXPECTED.
FOLLOWING THIS FIRST WAVE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION AS THE CYCLONE'S DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO OUR AREA
TEMPORARILY, BUT DEFORMATION IN THE WRAP-AROUND REGION OF THE
CYCLONE WILL FOSTER A SECOND WAVE OF RAINFALL DURING THE EARLY
TO LATE AFTERNOON, ADDING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.75" OF QPF.
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT OUR AREA,
LEAVING A SWATH OF 1-2+" OF RAIN FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
AN ELKHART TO WAKEENEY LINE.
DAYTIME TUESDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE A SECONDARY
VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND EJECT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO SOUTHWEST
KS, ALONG WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, HREF
MEMBERS DO NOT AGREE ON THE MAGNITUDE OR LOCATION OF ANY
PRECIPITATION, SO POPS WERE KEPT QUIET (BELOW 15%). OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ON WEDNESDAY, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LONGWAVE RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON THE HEELS OF THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TAKING OVER, AND LITTLE NOTEWORTHY CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND,
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EAST,
ALLOWING NEAR ZONAL FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH NO DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH, QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
PRECIPITATION HAS EXPANDED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AS OF 11Z, AND
IS NOW IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS BRINGING MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS AND
VIS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 21-01Z TIME
FRAME WHEN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA, WITH FLIGHT
CATEGORY IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR FOLLOWING SHORTLY AFTER. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE 18-23 KT RANGE
GUSTING TO 28-33 KTS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AOA
12 KTS AND TURN MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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