429
FXUS63 KDDC 182135
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WITH AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- COLDEST MORNING WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S, WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE
COLD SEASON SO FAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
ANOTHER NOVEMBER RECORD-BREAKING RAINFALL EVENT WAS WINDING DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY AND AN EXTENDED DRYING OUT PERIOD WILL
COMMENCE TOMORROW. PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN WESTERLY
TONIGHT, AND ONCE WE CLEAR OUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL DOWN
INTO THE 30S AND EVEN UPPER 20S FOR LOWS OUT WEST (WEST OF U83). A
FAST-MOVING, VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ZIPPING
EAST ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW,
AND THIS WILL BRING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP SATURATE OR NEARLY
SATURATE AROUND 700MB, LEADING TO AN AXIS OF CLOUD AND VIRGA ALONG A
SUBTLE COLD FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. WE ADDED IN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES, NORTHWEST OF
JOHNSON TO GARDEN TO HAYS LINE, ROUGHLY.
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW TOMORROW'S SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF THE COLD SEASON SO FAR.
OFFICIAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST 22 TO 26F, FOLLOWING CLOSELY
THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE LOW TEMPS. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, A
LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE THE
PREVAILING THEME MID-LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT
WIND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR
MID-LATE NOVEMBER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
AS WE HEAD IN TO THE LONGER PERIODS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEAK, THERE IS INCREASING SIGNAL OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PACIFIC JET STREAM ENERGY ENTERS THE
WESTERN CONUS. WE WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AS FAR AS HOW THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL IMPACT
WESTERN KANSAS, BUT IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO GET IN TO ANY DETAILS
REGARDING HOLIDAY WEEK WEATHER NOVEMBER 25TH AND BEYOND.|
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
POOR AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTHEAST LATER
TODAY, AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY, ESPECIALLY
AFTER 00Z/6 PM CST. WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A
CLEAR SKY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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