810
FXUS63 KDDC 190806
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD DESPITE THE
SREF SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, SENDING
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS BY
MID-DAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE LOWER LEVELS, RAIN
CHANCES (<10%) ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE DRIER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN AND AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE DOWNSLOPING REINFORCES A DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS.
FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, DROPPING H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR 0C. WITH THE
HREF PAINTING A 30-50% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 45F IN
WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING 50F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S/50S(F). A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT
GENERALLY AFTER 12-15Z TUESDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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