050
FXUS63 KDDC 151642
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1042 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD FOR SEVERAL DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT/TROF AXIS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND THE MAIN IMPACT (IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT)
WILL BE A WIND SHIFT. AGAIN, WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WIND COMPONENT
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, SO EXPECT THE MOST PRONOUNCED WARMING
AND HIGHEST HIGHS LOCATED IN THIS REGION. CALLING FOR AROUND 70F
FOR A HIGH NEAR ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS, MID 60S ACROSS THE ARK
RIVER BASIN, AND 50S NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. NO MAJOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED EVEN WITH THIS WARMTH AS BOTH WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE VERY MARGINAL SIDE. FOR TONIGHT,
WE WILL SEE A GRADIENT OF LOWS WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS (20S) AND 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL FAVOR A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES AND
SFC TROF FRAGMENTATION. THE NET RESULT IS FAIRLY MILD HIGHS AND SEASONABLY
COOL LOWS. UNFORTUNATELY BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE DRY WEATHER FORECAST PATTERN CONTINUING
FOR DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES. DURING THE PERIOD, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SHIFTING WINDS CLOCKWISE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KBJ
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