943
FXUS63 KDDC 152231
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
431 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT HAS JUST EXITED THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE WESTERN COUNTIES ALREADY REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND THE
FAR SW PORTION OF KANSAS PASSING 70 DEGREES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
(<20 MPH) THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL HELP MITIGATE
ANY FIRE WEATHER RISK DESPITE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN
15-25%. LATER ON SUNDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE ALREADY WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND MARGINALLY
DECREASE TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME
WITH WIDESPREAD AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH ACCOMPANYING LIGHT
WINDS. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN TO TAKE THE PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAS
MOVED THROUGH.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE HELD BY ENSEMBLES OF A
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY THROUGH THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEING FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WITHOUT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT,
BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS ON
SW KANSAS OUTSIDE OF SOME WIND AND TEMPERATURES SHIFTS. DUE TO
THE TREMENDOUSLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, VERY LITTLE NOTABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SW
KANSAS. NORMAL TO ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS ARE FORECASTED, AND BACK BY
ENSEMBLES, THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 431 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE,
WITH VFR/SKC, SCATTERED CIRRUS AT TIMES, AND LIGHT WINDS. A
MINOR INCREASE IN NW WINDS IS EXPECTED 06-12Z MON, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SW KS. AFTER 18Z MON, WINDS WILL TREND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE KEEPING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WEAK AT THE AIRPORTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...TURNER
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