092
FXUS63 KDDC 161743
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1143 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD FOR SEVERAL DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
ANOTHER TRANQUIL AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE BUSINESS
WEEK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 6 TO 16 MPH RANGE WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES PEAKING
IN THE 50S. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST WITH WEAK HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING RESUMING
IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY. THEREFORE, SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS, BUT NOTHING TOO MAJOR AS FAR
AS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WIND STANDARDS ARE CONSIDERED. A CONTINUATION
OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. AROUND 60F CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER EITHER.
DESPITE THE WARMTH AND THE STRONGER WINDS, STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANY
MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY GIVEN THE MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AND WIND MAGNITUDES. A SLIGHT "COOL DOWN" IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THIS REALLY ISN'T COLD AIR... IT WILL JUST BRING HIGHS CLOSER
TO NORMAL MIDWEEK. THE REST OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE END OF
THE BUSINESS WEEK FEATURES A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BOTH
IN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS. THIS
FAVORS A DRY FORECAST, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS, AND SEASONABLY
COOL LOWS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP AND WINDS AROUND 2000 FT INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS. THE
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AROUND 09Z
AND STAY BREEZY THROUGH 18Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15-20 KTS
AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TATRO
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