798
FXUS63 KDDC 162006
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
- DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
19Z UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM
IN MINNESOTA AN IOWA EXTENDING A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
AND AN APPROACHING DAMPENED RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES. A 1024 SURFACE
HIGH IS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW IN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES.
TONIGHT THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL MODESTLY DEEPEN THE
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. COMBINING WITH A DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH AND 850 MB WINDS FORECAST BY THE SHORT TERM MODELS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 45-50 KTS BY 12Z...WE SHOULD SEE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DURING THE NIGHT. I WENT MORE WITH NBM90TH GUIDANCE FOR WIND SPEEDS
AFTER 06Z WHICH PUT SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 30.
THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX THE AIR ENOUGH THAT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S.
TUESDAY A QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL EXTEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 21Z. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WE SHOULD SEE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LIBERAL TO WAKEENEY LINE.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED ON IF THE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS CAN BUMP US UP A FEW DEGREES OR THE EXPECTED HIGH CLOUDS KNOCK
OFF SOME INSOLATION. I TRENDED WARMER WITH NBM75 MAXT ON TUESDAY
WHICH WOULD PUT US IN THE UPPER 50S AND AROUND 60 IN THE RED HILLS.
LONG TERM ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WE SHOULD STAY IN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL INTRODUCE COLD FRONTS BUT WITH THE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR WE SHOULD
ONLY SEE A FEW DEGREE COOL DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN NBM MAXT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILES AT AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
SIGNIFYING LOW CONFIDENCE AT WHAT AIR MASS WILL WIN OUT LATER IN THE
WEEK. THE TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE COLDEST AIR IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND THE WARMEST AIR ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP AND WINDS AROUND 2000 FT INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS. THE
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS AROUND 09Z
AND STAY BREEZY THROUGH 18Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15-20 KTS
AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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