755
FXUS63 KDDC 162239
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
439 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
- DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
19Z UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM IN MINNESOTA AN IOWA EXTENDING A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS AND AN APPROACHING DAMPENED RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES.
A 1024 SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES.
TONIGHT THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL MODESTLY
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. COMBINING WITH A
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND 850 MB WINDS FORECAST BY THE SHORT
TERM MODELS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 45-50 KTS BY 12Z...WE SHOULD
SEE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. I WENT MORE WITH
NBM90TH GUIDANCE FOR WIND SPEEDS AFTER 06Z WHICH PUT SUSTAINED
AT 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 30. THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX THE AIR
ENOUGH THAT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S.
TUESDAY A QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL EXTEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 21Z. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WE SHOULD
SEE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LIBERAL TO
WAKEENEY LINE. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED
ON IF THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAN BUMP US UP A FEW DEGREES OR THE
EXPECTED HIGH CLOUDS KNOCK OFF SOME INSOLATION. I TRENDED WARMER
WITH NBM75 MAXT ON TUESDAY WHICH WOULD PUT US IN THE UPPER 50S
AND AROUND 60 IN THE RED HILLS.
LONG TERM ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WE SHOULD STAY IN A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL INTRODUCE COLD FRONTS BUT WITH THE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR WE
SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW DEGREE COOL DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ONE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
ANOTHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A WIDE
SPREAD IN NBM MAXT TEMPERATURES FROM THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILES
AT AROUND 10-15 DEGREES SIGNIFYING LOW CONFIDENCE AT WHAT AIR
MASS WILL WIN OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. THE TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE
COLDEST AIR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND THE WARMEST AIR
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 439 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
A CONTINUATION OF VFR/SKC, AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUE, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
EASTWARD, AND RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES. DESPITE THE NOCTURNAL
TIMING, SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS BY 12Z TUE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH
MIDMORNING TUESDAY, BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND TRENDING NWLY
AFTER 18Z TUE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TURNER
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