400
FXUS63 KDDC 172012
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
212 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT AND BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT
- ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR ON FRIDAY
- DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
19Z UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN TO THE COLORADO ROCKIES WITH
PVA COMING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE A SLOW
MOVING 1011 MB SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND A
WIND SHIFT LINE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
TONIGHT THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS
USHERED IN BY THE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS WE SHOULD SEE THE FRONT
QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT.
850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40 KTS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 AND SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. THE BAND OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE WITH UPCOMING SUBSIDENCE BY
SUNRISE AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL IN THE THE
NBM25TH PERCENTILE RANGE WHICH WILL BE THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 0 (C) WITH THE COLDEST AIR IN CENTRAL KANSAS HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST TO THE
LOW 50S NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND A MILDER 850 MB AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF WARMUP ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LONGWAVE
ROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS USHERS IN A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE WITH THE FROPA WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
NO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES KEEP UP BASICALLY PRECIP FREE THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT MONDAY AND ONLY A HANDFUL OF SOLUTIONS HINT AT ANY PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWITCH THE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 19Z FOR ALL THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE. LATER TONIGHT
AFTER 03Z A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
AND LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS MAINLY FOR DDC AND HYS BETWEEN 03-15Z.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 25
KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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