800
FXUS63 KDDC 190512
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1112 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THURSDAY
- COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING
- NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY...HINTS OF
A STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND CHRISTMAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
19Z UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND AT THE SURFACE A
1033 MB HIGH IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH IN
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
TONIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST
FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON TO THE EVENING HOURS. A MILD 850 MB AIRMASS
(~11-14 C) SHOULD ALSO GO ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE MODERATED.
WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP AROUND THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...OVERALL LOWS SHOULD
FALL TO AROUND 30.
THURSDAY ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE A TROUGH MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND A
COLD FRONT AT NIGHT (SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ON TUESDAY). AS A
RESULT OF A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 60. THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN INCREASE
IN POST FRONTAL WINDS IN OUR AREA AND THE GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
COLDER AIR WILL BE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AND
MILDER NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP US DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
CHRISTMAS. THERE IS SOME HINTS IN THE CONTROL EURO AND GFS OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THESE MODELS HAVE
BEEN CHANGING BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH AND ALSO THE TRACK HAS
WIDELY VARIED WHICH IS WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT WITH A DAY 8 SOLUTION.
THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING MAINLY A PROGRESSIVE WAVE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH MANY ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STAYING ON THE DRIER SIDE.
OVERALL NEXT WEEK IS ALSO LOOKING MILD WITH NO MAJOR ANOMALIES IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NO PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR ON
THE HORIZON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, EXCEPT
FOR A BRIEF WINDOW AT HYS BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z WHEN WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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